Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026
A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.
Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”
Every American who called Russians orcs better be getting ready to fully embrace that label.
what’s new after iraq?
They just need to channel the power of ahura mazda and send in the Immortal regiment.
The American invaders versus the Persian defenders. A full scale bombardment.
Iran is such a beautiful country. I’ve watched people motorcycle and bicycle through it on YouTube and the people are so kind and warm. It’s really upsetting the way America wields it’s might.
pizza index is really quiet right now, but the AFB i live by is tense. my money says next week.
.
Trump is finally about to become presidential.
Also getting his Nobel peace prize aaaany minute now.
So just clarify, Russia, which we were all promised would drop a nuke on Ukraine, still hasn’t (and won’t, let’s be real; this is Russia, not America), while America is most likely about to conduct their second (third if you count Hiroshima and Nagasaki as separate incidents) nuclear attack?
And you just know the news is gonna whitewash this
I don’t think even Yanks are dumb enough to use nukes over this, what would be the point?
The point would be to let the world know just how unhinged the Burger Reich is and that they’re willing to end humanity if they don’t get what they want.
Trump is desperate to be remebered in history as ANYTHING besides the chikd rapist he is. See also why he has been demolishing DC to build shitty Trump monuments. Dropping a Nuke would put him in the books too.
Nobody is planning a nuclear attack. Name your sources or stop spreading fear and disinformation.
I don’t have a link for it, but so far the only source for the nuke rumors I’ve seen is a 4chan post claiming that Israel is going to use tac nukes to disable missile bases and possibly get a leadership bunker in Tehran. The post is worded to suggest that the poster is someone inside some aspect of the operation or military buildup which I suppose is getting people to take it more seriously, but it’s an anonymous source on 4chan, so not something credible.
Trump will unleash a whole new level of hell upon this world. Just to feed his ego.
The moment Iran sinks an aircraft carrier, Donald will respond with nukes. Assuming that the madman doesn’t start with a nuke.
Just to feed his ego.
It’s actually to secure the hegemony of US empire and monopoly capital
I agree.
I really hope not, but if he does, it will be spectacular self-own as it’s bound to turn the whole middle-east against USA due to the literal fallout.
there is a 0% chance Iran has the capability to sink a carrier.
They’ve got a lot of hypersonics that the fleet has no response to
‘hypersonics’ is the ‘ai’ of the defense industry.
I think you are wrong. Iran has a large suite of ballistic missiles. Unless the carriers stay out of the max range of those arms, a carrier will be sunk.
No, Iran lacks the capability of hitting moving targets at that distance. You need real time data for that kind of operation that basically nobody except the US (globally) and maybe China Russia France and GB (locally) have.
During the retaliatory strikes against Israel they missed targets the size of military bases hat long range.
Iran is one of about 3 or 4 countries on earth that is both capable and motivated to sink a US carrier. They have one of the most powerful missile forces on earth and will be in the defensive position.
Is the likelihood of an invasion based on something Iran is doing? Or is it dependent on how horrifying the next Epstein file drop will be? I mean…I know the fucking answer to this already. Doesn’t make it any less infuriating. This piece of shit will start World War III, all to distract everyone from the fact that he raped children. “No new wars.”
It is about controlling the straight of hormuz for the usa and to crush any resistance to the greater israel plan for Israel
Its never been about anything Iran is doing. They have never had a nuclear weapons program.
Can you explain why they were mass producing weapons-grade uranium?
Not that I support this action, but Don’t they have an enrichment facility with centrifuges?
They want nuclear energy, not weapons (though it’s pretty stupid for them, nukes are the only thing stopping US monster)
They have nuclear power plants that require enriched uranium.
If Iran wanted a nuclear bomb, instead of spending months trying to enrich Uranium beyond what’s required for power and medicine, they could simply chemically separate plutonium out from spent fuel.
A uranium bomb is easier to develop and mass producing enriched uranium with existing centrifuges is as well.
The reports from the IAEA clearly showed Iran had put their centrifuges in a cascade to make as much weapons grade uranium from mid 2024 to the attacks last summer.
Reuters
Yeah, and Iraq is totally producing weapons of mass destruction
You can find the reports yourself on the IAEA site
Sorry you got duped about Iraq. Did you get your news from Reuters?
“Heh, no u” you empire simps are pathetic
I wouldn’t take a Lemmy comment as evidence either way.
It’s over resources since forever.
I really hate how prophetic the movie Wag the Dog was.
Easy to be prophetic, when you are just describing what is already happening.
I know this is naive but is there ZERO international efforts to stop this blatant terrorism?
Russia and China have been sending military aid to Iran. China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military production. Clearly that hasn’t been a sufficient deterrent though.
And there’s really nothing that can be done in terms of international law because the US simply ignores it.
Obviously neither Russia nor China want to have a direct military confrontation with the US either. That would be WW3, and likely lead to a nuclear holocaust.
So, it seems like a war on Iran is unavoidable at this point.
China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military
I thought they capitulated in this, no?
It sounds like its incumbent on american citizens, then
Nope, they never lifted restrictions on that.
Good. I hope they never do
Yeah, if China stops supplying rare earths, that’s really going to cripple US military production capacity going forward.
I guess that also explains the recent american involvement in Africa too
Sadly, it’s just Bibi and Donnie with their, ahem, questionable motives, who seem willing to intervene there
Willing? Do you mean: doing all the harm?
Do you think the Iranian regime murdering all opposition is causing no harm?
Im not advocating for that regime. Thats a separate issue.
However, the usa abd pissrael goaded Iran into a much more severe reaction. Do you remember when pissrael said they had agents inciting insurrection amongst the protesters?
They ‘goaded them’? They started torturing and killing all opposition the very day they took power. Didn’t need any help for that
Again, this is not me advocating for the regime. However, as an anti-imperiliast, I can hope that the people of Iran make changes to their government on their own, without 2000 lb palestinian child murder bombs from the usa
Do you think they have a chance without outside help?
Eh, it’s Iran. Most of the world hates them, so good luck gathering support.
Most of the world hates them
Just most of the white world
Europe outsourced their militarism to the US for 40-60 years.
Who would stop this? As in, who has the forces to do so?
Ugh, its so true. But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know). What about congress? (Again). Where is anything?
But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know).
Well, I mean, do you? You’re asking about a body created by and hosted in the US and funded also largely by the US. It’s toothless and useless because nobody has ever done anything substantial to legitimize it except the US and now that the US has decided that unilateral fascism is the easy path, what exactly does anyone expect?
It’s like a microcosm of the sum of Europe’s problems rn, tbh.
But surely there are economic sanctions or SOME even milqtoast consequences that can get ball rolling
Im aware how reckless the un is but those sorts of rebukes on the international stage DO make a difference
I dunno what planet you’ve been on, but the international efforts for the last few major wars have been very little but finger wagging.
I totally know that but like … notning? Really? UN? NATO? WEF? Anybody?
It used to be the USSR but that era is long gone and the US filled the void.
Not even China wants to go down that route.
Iran also failed to properly maintain and upgrade their military since the end of the war with Iraq. They have an internal political issue which is why they have the IRGC, which is a completely separate entity from the national military.
It was in the supreme leader’s interest to keep the main military weak to ensure he couldn’t be couped, but now that has left them extremely exposed.
Didnt know that. Makes sense. Do you think he could rally a defense force?
yeah I saw almost no coverage on this today. the zone is flooded, and boy is it shit.
Don lemon though, they covered it extensively.
Sadly both sides are eager to attack Iran 😭 😭 😭.
Reminder Schumer started taco trump because Trump was hinting he may be soft on Iran not for anything he does to the America
Schumer will only be mad that Trump didn’t fill out the right paperwork, but will fullthroated support the policy.
