Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026
A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.
Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”
I know this is naive but is there ZERO international efforts to stop this blatant terrorism?
Russia and China have been sending military aid to Iran. China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military production. Clearly that hasn’t been a sufficient deterrent though.
And there’s really nothing that can be done in terms of international law because the US simply ignores it.
Obviously neither Russia nor China want to have a direct military confrontation with the US either. That would be WW3, and likely lead to a nuclear holocaust.
So, it seems like a war on Iran is unavoidable at this point.
I thought they capitulated in this, no?
It sounds like its incumbent on american citizens, then
Nope, they never lifted restrictions on that.
Good. I hope they never do
Yeah, if China stops supplying rare earths, that’s really going to cripple US military production capacity going forward.
I guess that also explains the recent american involvement in Africa too
Europe outsourced their militarism to the US for 40-60 years.
Who would stop this? As in, who has the forces to do so?
Ugh, its so true. But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know). What about congress? (Again). Where is anything?
Well, I mean, do you? You’re asking about a body created by and hosted in the US and funded also largely by the US. It’s toothless and useless because nobody has ever done anything substantial to legitimize it except the US and now that the US has decided that unilateral fascism is the easy path, what exactly does anyone expect?
It’s like a microcosm of the sum of Europe’s problems rn, tbh.
But surely there are economic sanctions or SOME even milqtoast consequences that can get ball rolling
Im aware how reckless the un is but those sorts of rebukes on the international stage DO make a difference
Eh, it’s Iran. Most of the world hates them, so good luck gathering support.
Just most of the white world
Sadly, it’s just Bibi and Donnie with their, ahem, questionable motives, who seem willing to intervene there
Willing? Do you mean: doing all the harm?
Do you think the Iranian regime murdering all opposition is causing no harm?
Im not advocating for that regime. Thats a separate issue.
However, the usa abd pissrael goaded Iran into a much more severe reaction. Do you remember when pissrael said they had agents inciting insurrection amongst the protesters?
They ‘goaded them’? They started torturing and killing all opposition the very day they took power. Didn’t need any help for that
Again, this is not me advocating for the regime. However, as an anti-imperiliast, I can hope that the people of Iran make changes to their government on their own, without 2000 lb palestinian child murder bombs from the usa
Do you think they have a chance without outside help?
I think, considering the totality of the circumstances eg: what america will do/does across the globe; they have a greater chance on their own, of being free, than with the “”““help””“” of the usa
Do you think the US is helping?
I dunno what planet you’ve been on, but the international efforts for the last few major wars have been very little but finger wagging.
I totally know that but like … notning? Really? UN? NATO? WEF? Anybody?
It used to be the USSR but that era is long gone and the US filled the void.
Not even China wants to go down that route.
Iran also failed to properly maintain and upgrade their military since the end of the war with Iraq. They have an internal political issue which is why they have the IRGC, which is a completely separate entity from the national military.
It was in the supreme leader’s interest to keep the main military weak to ensure he couldn’t be couped, but now that has left them extremely exposed.
Didnt know that. Makes sense. Do you think he could rally a defense force?