☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆

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Joined 6 years ago
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Cake day: January 18th, 2020

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  • Given that they want to steal Russian assets because they’ve run out of money to fund the war, it’s not clear where the money to compensate Euroclear would come from. However, that’s not really even the main issue. The real risk is that Europe becomes toxic to foreign investment once they do this. Nobody in their right mind would ever park money in Europe or invest into European industry after that. The whole attempt to seize Nexperia doesn’t help build confidence either. And of course, foreign money that’s currently in Europe is going to flee as well which will lead to a huge financial crisis bringing us back to the question of how the EC can possibly reimburse anything.

































  • What gets lost in the Poland success story is the scale of the Western financial intervention in the early 90s. It wasn’t just a few loans. The US alone kicked in nearly a billion dollars in grants and aid right out of the gate to stop the economy from collapsing. Then 200 million for the Polish Stabilization Fund in 1990 that made their new currency actually work. But the really big one, the thing no other post-communist country got on that level, was the debt forgiveness. The Paris Club, with the US leading the charge, straight up cancelled half of Poland’s official government debt. We’re talking about wiping clean 50% of a 30 billion dollar tab. The US forgave about 2.4 billion of the 3 billion Poland owed it. That was a massive, deliberate financial reset button.

    So when people talk about Poland’s climb from low to high income, the real story is that the climb started on a foundation built with hundreds of millions in direct grants and one of a kind debt haircut orchestrated by the West. They did the hard work, for sure, but they were able to do it standing on a mountain of forgiven debt and direct cash that simply wasn’t available to others in the same way.