Oh I think it’s still a very real possibility, but it would be a truly desperate move on the part of the US.

The strategic reality of Russia’s neighbours is obviously that they can’t change their geography and have to find a way to live with Russia. That should be obvious to anybody with even a minimally functioning brain. The war in Ukraine is a direct result of Europe acting in the American interest and participating in expansion of NATO. It’s incredible to me that people still can’t understand this basic fact.

Meanwhile, the report you yourself linked clearly shows that Russian energy exports have remained stable overall. The harm that’s been done to Europe is far greater than any profits Russia has lost over the past 4 years. Not only that, but with Russian supplies cut off and now the Gulf, Europe finds itself entirely dependent on the US which is a predatory power.

The nuclear option is definitely a possibility, but it would be a disastrous move for the US to take. As Ted Postol explained in this interview, Iran already has sufficient material to construct atomic bombs. They don’t need any large facilities to do that, and they don’t need to test them ahead of time. This can be done in a tunnel with very little space. Around three atomics would basically end Israel, and they have enough material for around a dozen. The key part is that they can make them even after they’ve been nuked.

But even leaving that aside, using of nuclear weapons in an unprovoked war of aggression would make the US a global pariah. It would be politically impossible even for other western countries to associate with the US at that point. On top of that, this would expose the US army as being incredibly weak in practice. If they have to reach for their ultimate weapon after only a month of fighting that means the US has very little conventional power. Russia is on the fourth year of war in Ukraine and they haven’t had to resort to nukes.

The situation in Lebanon is very much dire though, and it seems like that’s gong to be up to Hezbollah with little support from Iran until the ceasefire collapses again.

Russia is obviously able to expand sales to more customers, and diversification makes sense as well. They don’t want to be reliant on one or two big customers here. Also, selling at a discount on spot market still brings in far more revenue than long term pipeline contracts with Europe did. Meanwhile, the west is literally facilitating a genocide in Gaza and people living in western countries have zero moral ground to bray about Russia at this point. Finally, not sure what these big efforts to transition away are exactly. So far, it’s pretty clear that Russia has done far more to transition away from Europe than the other way around.

great attention to detail

We already know what will happen because we’ve already seen what happened during the tariff war. The reality is that American economy is entirely dependent on goods from China to function. If the Burger Reich gets too uppity then China will shut off the flow of treats. It’s really that simple.

The fact that this genocidal sack of shit was you lr ‘best’ president is the point https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2017-01-17/obamas-covert-drone-war-in-numbers-ten-times-more-strikes-than-bush

Oh hey, quick question. Did you know that Iran sells most of its oil to China? Guess what would happen if the Burger Reich tried to interdict Chinese ships. China will simply stop selling essential things to you like they did during the tariff war, and then daddy is going to have to beg Xi for forgiveness again so your economy doesn’t collapse.

What’s actually happening here is that Russia is grabbing the market early and undercutting the Burger Reich. Once they’ve secured customers then prices will obviously go up.

exactly

Basically, Trump is creating a hostage situation here. He’s saying he’s willing to blow up world economy even if it takes the US down with it. He’s basically bluffing trying to somehow convince other countries to join in the war on Iran through coercion.

Calling Ansar Allah rebels is kinda silly given that they’re the government that controls vast majority of the country. It’s the official government of Yemen.

I don’t really think escalation is a concern for Iran at this point. It’s pretty clear the US army is at the limit of what it’s able to do here. They can try put boots on the ground next, but that’s going to be a disaster for them. They could ultimately try using nukes, but I’m not sure even the US public would accept that. There are not that many options left. So, it makes perfect sense for Iran to start causing casualties to make this whole thing as costly as possible.

no disagreement there

He acts as an accelerant to be sure, but same direction of travel would’ve been happening without him.

In a way, I find it preferable because he pulls back the curtain and shows the empire for what it really is. A more slick imperial asshole might’ve actually been smart enough to sell these atrocities in a way that western public would accept.

Trump is just the front man.

kind of ironic with the BBC being the UK regime mouthpiece

I imagine Iran is just going through the motions to show that they’re not being unreasonable. When the US exposes themselves as they inevitably will, it’s going to be clear to the whole world who is escalating.

I think you may be overestimating how tethered to our shared reality Trump is here.