The entire US economy is currently being propped up by growth in the AI/tech sector. And I am convinced that LLMs are fundamentally incapable of delivering on the promises being made by the AI CEOs. That means there is a massive bubble that will eventually burst, probably taking the whole US economy with it.

Let’s say, for sake of argument, that I am a typical American. I work a job for a wage, but I’m mostly living paycheck to paycheck. I have maybe a little savings, and a retirement account with a little bit in it, but certainly not enough that I can retire anytime in the near future.

To what extent is it possible for someone like me, who doesn’t buy into the AI hype, to insulate themselves from the negative impact of the eventual collapse?

  • Lumisal@lemmy.world
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    3 hours ago

    Weird no one is saying this, but exchange dollars to Euros.

    Had it been done back in November of last year, 1,000$ would now be worth about 1,200$.

    Even if the Euro loses some value from the crash, it probably won’t be greater than 20% of the exchange difference there is now.

  • Phoenixz@lemmy.ca
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    6 hours ago

    I do wonder…

    With most economic crashes, the rich get even richer. This time it’s different, though.

    Right now, the top 8 richest men in the world have as much wealth as the bottom 50%. Homelessness world wide is at an all time high, and a huge swath of people can’t afford all the basic necessities anymore.

    If an economic crash happens now, will the 99% of the people finally wake up and just TAKE the resources from that 1%, like it or not?

    What do billionaires think will happen to them once shit really hits the fan?

    • dogbert@lemmy.zip
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      4 hours ago

      They will always be safe in the US. Americans truly are not capable of revolution.

    • FreedomAdvocate@lemmy.net.au
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      5 hours ago

      What do you think would happen to billionaires in that scenario? The richest people in the world, who all own their own islands and mega yachts and can easily pay anyone enough money to do whatever they want?

      No one is “taking” what they want from them lol.

      This time it’s different, though

      How? How is this fantasised about economic crash different?

  • blarghly@lemmy.world
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    7 hours ago

    Riding out economic ups and downs is really just about good personal finance. The good advice is the same in good times and bad, which is why it is good advice - in economics, you never really know when good or bad times are coming.

    1. Spend less
    2. Earn more
    3. Invest the difference
    • 843563115848@lemmy.zip
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      6 hours ago

      Your #3 is problematic.

      The basis of the question is where to invest in order to avoid the coming AI crash. Your answer fails.

      • FreedomAdvocate@lemmy.net.au
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        5 hours ago

        If you’re certain there’s an AI crash coming then you could make a lot of money betting on it. Put your money where your mouth is and become one of the billionaires.

        You could also just not invest money in AI companies.

      • Perspectivist@feddit.uk
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        6 hours ago

        If you’re certain an “AI crash” is coming, then shorting AI companies is how you’d not only avoid the fallout but actually profit from it. That’s speculative investing though - basically gambling.

        For everyone else without the ability to predict the future, the general advice stays the same: invest in low-cost, highly diversified index funds spread across sectors and regions. The markets are deeply interconnected, so it doesn’t really matter where you’re invested - when the market crashes, you’re getting hit. If you’re all in on tech, you’ll get hit hard; if you’re spread out, you’ll get hit less. But either way, you’ll feel it.

        For someone in it for the long run, it doesn’t matter what the market’s doing. I just keep doing what I’ve always done - managing my finances carefully and investing my savings.

        • Smoogs@lemmy.world
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          5 hours ago

          Shorting counts as income and you’ll be taxed on it as income. You also have a chance that no one will buy you out of the hole once it hits its mark.

          Lots of risks in shorting.

          While I agree with diversifying, the tariffs are fucking over the stock market hard in so many ways you cannot avoid it. Right now everyone sold their gold cuz they need money, And two days ago the tariff on China created a ripple on the precious metals. Tomorrow trump will fart some blithering assanine remark and suddenly for whatever reason lithium will take a dive for it.

          Investing has become a stupid stress game.

  • last_philosopher@lemmy.world
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    6 hours ago

    If you have a retirement account, it’s probably in some sort of stocks. Be aware of what those are. Consider including some non-American index funds that are not particularly tech heavy. S&P index funds are significantly exposed to AI-related tech companies, and their usual safety is currently questionable.

  • ameancow@lemmy.world
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    12 hours ago

    I am not an expert per-say on AI, but I have survived economic collapses. Kinda.

    Here’s what you can expect.

    It will happen a lot faster and more sudden than you expect. It will be a few days of “uncertainty” and you will see reports on the market and spending and fear through investors, and then BAM everything goes deep red for a few days and then you suddenly get sent home from work.

    Your job, no matter how skilled or stable or unrelated to finance or the stock market you may think it is- is NOT safe. In fact, service industry jobs are often the first to go, because when the market tanks and investors start pulling out money, one of the first, strongest effects we feel is that people with money immediately stop spending. If you install windows and doors, if you cut grass, if you clean or cook, expect people will suddenly start doing that themselves more and more. You may get laid off suddenly depending on how much reserve your company has.

    There will be an immediate and overwhelming strain on state and city services. Unemployment offices, food banks, employment centers, and expect the media to create a LOT of hype around it to a destructive degree, there will be the same kinds of supermarket raiding like we saw with covid for no real good reason other than people feeling afraid.


    What you should do now to prepare:

    Have backup income plans. Even if modest, have some hustles ready to deploy. Get certified or see what you need to get certified ahead of time to do Uber and/or Lyft, people are going to be using ride sharing more because they won’t be able to afford to drive or make car payments. Think about other services people are going to need if they don’t have jobs - handyman work on the cheap, dog and pet care, unlicensed work you know you can do safely, etc. If you or your family can do art and crafts, set up an etsy market now before you’re strained, open it up to international customers.

    SAVE MONEY, have cash savings as well as bank savings, have gold too if you can swing it. Expect any accounts that are tied to investments to be frozen or even wiped out, such as 401k’s and the like.

    Whatever you can do to reduce debts and spending - pay down or pay off credit cards or cars if you can. Get your finances in order as much as you can, so figure out exactly what you’re spending and what your margins are.

    Stockpile canned goods and basic survival supplies ahead of time like it’s the goddamn apocalypse. Seriously, have at least a month of dry goods and preserved food, you have some time (maybe) so start collecting canned food, sacks of dried beans and rice, toilet paper and soap, other supplies you buy regularly. This will give you a safety net if it gets bad, it’s one less [major] thing to worry about as you shift around your expenses and priorities.

    Get information ahead of time about where your local DES/unemployment offices are, and what’s required to apply. Find out ALL the programs you can apply for, from, nutrition assistance to grants to stipends or tax credits for whatever your family situation is. You won’t get through on the website, it will be crashed with traffic, so be ready to go stand in line with your paperwork. You will get some number of months of benefits if you qualify (requirements vary by state) and most likely after some political contention, congress will pass emergency funding for extensions and stimulus checks. But it won’t last forever.

    Go visit your nearest food bank now. Bring them some food and socks, get to know who runs things so that when it’s your time to stand in line, they know you already and have good associations.

    We don’t really know how bad it could get. So get a gun. There may be civil unrest at some point. Our world is about two missed meals away from anarchy, or at the very least crime will increase and homes will get broken into, and police will likely be understaffed and overworked. You will be on your own.

  • Artisian@lemmy.world
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    13 hours ago

    Lots of reasonable personal advice here. I want to suggest some community driven ideas, though they’re less fleshed out than I’d like.

    Look into community and common gardens (and if they don’t exist, start pushing for a local org to make such space). If you are renting, look into tenants unions (or consider organizing your own).

    Invest some in food kitchens + homeless shelters now, while you’ve got something to share. Consider volunteering and becoming more familiar with the resources (you may not need it, but others could).

    Consider broader political organizing. The people in power (even in local positions!) when the crisis hits will definitely matter. America gave big buy-outs to businesses during previous crashes; but it could payout to citizens just as easily. Lookup and start discussing policy solutions that could help insulate you and your community. Bring this up at a city council meeting. Write a county representative.

  • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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    17 hours ago

    And I am convinced that LLMs are fundamentally incapable of delivering on the promises being made by the AI CEOs.

    As a, uh, atypical American, and someone into the ML scene and previously employed in an LLM dev job… I agree.

    I don’t think ML is going away, as what’s been made so far are niche tools in the same way a hammer is, but the level of hype and conning is literally criminal.

    If you can shift stocks around, take them out of indexes and put the cash in crash-resilient stocks like Berkshire Hathaway (which somewhat famously/infamously saves cash to buy dips during crashes), or Walmart. I’m thinking on such a “Noah’s Ark” basket for myself.

    I’m not knowledgeable enough to comment on bonds, gold, or whatever else your savings may be in. But don’t believe a word anyone says to you about crypto.

    Start saving a bit extra too, if possible, as the crash may not come for some time. And you want to avoid selling invested savings when the markets at its lowest.


    On the tech side, you can get more into self hosting to not be so dependent on Big Tech. You’re on the perfect site to learn that.

    If you ask me, that even includes dabbling in open-weights ML stuff, as that might suddenly become a more marketable skill once all the OpenAI hype implodes, and companies sipping the Koolaid turn more practical/frugal.


    Other than that… I dunno. Depends on your work and lifestyle, I suppose. I think this will be a bumpy ride no matter what we do.

    • foggy@lemmy.world
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      15 hours ago

      As a security engineer, I implore anyone to have an LLM walk you through standing up an SIEM.

      Like don’t get me wrong. They’re phenomenal. But they just aren’t capable of complex tasks yet.

  • cAUzapNEAGLb@lemmy.world
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    17 hours ago

    Hard assets make a lot of sense when paper assets do not.

    Real estate and precious metals are the traditional hard assets. The stock market can implode, but a home will remain a home, an acre will remain an acre, an ounce will remain an ounce.

    There are difficulties and risks and efforts required with hard assets, theres a reason why soft assets developed, but when things go wrong people trust what they can hold and walk on - and thus seek real estate and precious metals as they are certain and tangible.

    With a little more trust in the system, there are softer assets available such as bonds, specifically treasury bonds, and there are etfs that attempt to exclude the ai bubble such as XMAG, or the sp500 but equally distributed instead of by market cap which increases diversity like RSP to reduce the fallout of the ai bubble pop

    Theres a million ways to navigate a bubble, do the research and find confidence in your plan, and think about how you’ll react in various scenarios, especially when the numbers go down or arent going as high as expected

    • pelespirit@sh.itjust.works
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      17 hours ago

      Real estate

      I saw that you put a caveat in there about it, but I’m going to make it a little more clear.

      If anyone here has lived through the dot.com bubble in Seattle (and probably the bay area), they’ll have seen that real estate is great if it’s paid for. If you go underwater on your loan and kicked out, which is how the banks got so much real estate in 08, you’re fucked. There *are no general rules, but guides.

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        17 hours ago

        In general, investing borrowed money is risky… People just don’t realize they’re doing that when they take on a mortgage.

        • pelespirit@sh.itjust.works
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          17 hours ago

          This reminds me that I wish there was a basic course on money and the systems around it, that explains everything like you just did. It’s not magic, but it’s obfuscated behind so many terms and people trying to sell content, that it’s not a simple thing to figure out on one’s own.

    • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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      17 hours ago

      Real estate is a trouble prone investment normally, much less in this crazy market; I specifically wouldn’t want to touch that right now.

      Can’t speak for metals, but also be careful there…

      Thing about a bubble like this is you don’t know when it’s going to pop. I like the saying “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

      What I’m saying is to be careful about going all in on more pure hedges. If this lasts another 4 years and one’s into stuff like XMAG and metals, and they drop in a crash anyway, you may end up in a worse position than if you had held the S&P 500. I think a better perspective is to avoid “buying a hedge” and instead invest in companies (or other assets) one thinks will be productive and grow with the bubble or not. They’ll grow however long the bubble goes, and keep growing after.

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        5 hours ago

        I don’t know about you but an ounce never remains and ounce you cut that shit make two ounces then someone else does the same and sells it as grams

  • dhork@lemmy.world
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    17 hours ago

    I will be the contrarian in the room and say that you shouldn’t really do anything different – unless you know that you are going to need that money in the next year or two.

    Let’s take the S&P 500. Yes, we know there is an AI bubble, and the same 7 tech companies are knee deep in it. But it turns out that bubbles make money, until they don’t. In fact, a good chunk of the growth in the S&P over the past two years has been in those 7 companies.. If you had made this bet 2 years ago, you would be a big loser now.

    So what do you do? Don’t panic sell. You can’t time the market. Sell when you need the money for something else. Sell when you have a purpose. But don’t be too upset when the bubble finally bursts, and it all dives 25% (or more!) . That was never real money anyway.

    • fodor@lemmy.zip
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      9 hours ago

      Here, OP is asking about their situation even if they have almost no investments. In other words, they’re asking about the downturn on the national and global economy, and how that could make their life bad. Since it obviously can (through, for example, job loss or difficulty obtaining groceries), then some amount of preparation might be reasonable.

      Another good question is what to do if you have medium-size investments and you don’t want to see them tank. That’s what you are talking about.

      “That was never real money anyway.” Rich people sometimes say that, but everyone else knows you’re wrong. We save a percent of our paycheck every month to make sure we have money for retirement. We all wish we had guaranteed benefits, but that system was scrapped by greedy rich assholes decades ago, so now we are gambling that our savings will increase, because if they don’t, we’ll be working until the day we die… So if we feel like that money is real, maybe we’re right.

      And if you feel like the money isn’t real, can you give it to us? Couldn’t hurt, after all, because it’s all fake.

    • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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      17 hours ago

      Normally I would agree.

      But the weight of this one obviously hyped sector is measurably, historically huge: https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/ExtremeAIConcentration-090825.pdf

      With a lot of “circular investment” reminiscent of previous bad behavior: https://www.axios.com/2025/09/25/nvidia-openai-investment-ai

      Obviously don’t sell after a crash, or sell the absolute least you can to live; that is rule #1.

      …But I think it’s prudent to save a bit extra and shuffle some investment out of the S&P 500 pre-emptively, as it’s starting to resemble an AI evangelism hype fund. I’m not that old/experienced, but I’ve never seen anything like this in the market, especially from my perspective in the ML tinkerer community where, ironically, it’s obvious how much this all stinks. All the academics know it.

      • iegod@lemmy.zip
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        11 hours ago

        Risk tolerance is definitely a thing and I’d argue being all in on the s&p500 is already poor diversification. Global broad market etfs would fare better. The worst thing to do regardless of tolerance or portfolio is selling at crash.

  • BertramDitore@lemmy.zip
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    17 hours ago

    This is a great question, I’ll be watching the replies. I had a similar thought this morning as I was checking how my very humble ETF investments were looking, and I remembered that NVIDIA is a chunk of one of them…

    I don’t have much disposable income to invest, but I like to put a little bit in non-fossil fuel ETFs, and I feel like they’ll get super risky once the bubble pops (which I agree, it will).

  • HubertManne@piefed.social
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    17 hours ago

    So. I have been through the tech bubble and housing bubble and this got me to investigate the great depression and what I found is. No. I mean if your rich enough. Maybe. But things like real estate have reoccurring costs and things like gold you lose value in the buying in selling and its not liquid enough for you to deal with the economic situation you will have outside of investments. A normal person will have to use savings which include investments to get through it. Owning a home without a mortgage can be helpful unless you need to move for work. its complicated.

  • LunatiQue Goddess @lemmy.world
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    17 hours ago

    Look up free land available for homesteading. There are several states in America that will pay you if you meet the criteria to move to them so that you can homestead and provide agricultural food. You don’t need to be a farmer already, in some exceptions.

    Stop using tech that supports or implements AI. Many people don’t like something but still support the companies that do it. Stand on your beliefs and don’t participate.

    Start getting into self sufficiency.

  • chazwhiz@lemmy.world
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    17 hours ago

    I have no advice but I’ve been thinking the same way. I like LLMs, I use LLMs, but the “shove an LLM into every product and call it more valuable” approach is not sustainable and it will fail. Hopefully not as a full on bubble collapsing economy thing, but it’s only a matter of time (I’d guess a year tops) until companies have to start admitting to losses and investors start retreating.

    Hopefully someone with some decent economic knowledge will drop some advice, but frankly I doubt anyone can do much better than guess (or parrot old advice) what will be least impacted. Intuitively tech stocks are the ones that will be hurt, maybe it’s manufacturing stuff that will stay more stable, but it’s all such a complicated web of interdependency who knows.

    • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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      16 hours ago

      It also depends what you mean by “hurt.”

      Nvidia/AMD stocks, for example, are going to drop like meteors, but the physical companies themselves will be fine. They’re like the picks and shovels makers of the California Gold Rush; they’ve made their piles of cash and will go back to business as usual. Hence, I’m not selling my long-held AMD, even though I’m certainly not buying more. Yet.

      And some totally unrelated companies may be disproportionately hurt by the pullback of a serious recession.


      One comment I will make on LLMs specifically is it’s more of a “race to the bottom” than you’d think. Between sparsity research (with the recent MoE trend being a rather crude stopgap if you ask me), alternate attention schemes, finetuning advancements, computing shifts like BitNet all in the pipe, and all the open models from China and others, well…

      The end point feels like local inference of specialized, freely licensed models. As useful, niche tools, not superintelligence.

      They’re low power basically free, hence seemingly inevitable.

      That’s utterly apocalyptic if you’re someone like Sam Altman or Jeff Bezos. OpenAI can’t make money off that, which is why they’re lobbying to kill it and preaching infinite scaling that won’t work.