“Generic Democrat” always does better in polls than any “Actual Democrat”. Dem voters conduct annoying purity tests on most candidates and love to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in order to feel good about themselves.
Pools doesn’t matter if people don’t go and vote
pools always matter! You can cool down, get some exercise, maybe even play some Marco Polo.
You can win money at the office, maybe play some billiards
And they will still manage to fuck it up somehow
They’ll use it as a sign from Israel that we don’t need a primary and they’ll throw Kamala at us again. I swear to god I will vote for JD if they don’t have a primary again.
Sounds smart and reasonable. Worked out great last time.
Yeah, such a great plan. Hope that works out for ya next time round.
2018 wasn’t a fucking banner year. PANIC AS DEMOCRATS AREN’T HATED ACROSS THE BOARD wouldn’t be quite the headline I guess.
TBH I don’t care about a 2018 lead, I want to see the 1975-1979 lead where the Democrats gain supermajority. I want to see 1894 type of numbers where the overreaching party who implemented tariffs see a 100+ seat loss.
I want every single Republican out of a job.
100+ seat loss isn’t possible in the US. City/Suburban ideology is the polar opposite of the rural one. Our system gives disproportionate voices to people who live in rural areas. Young people today have left their rural communities for the cities because it’s not possible to lead a comfortable working life in rural America anymore. The Carter flip was only possible because the democratic base was diffused across many rural counties; that’s not the case anymore.
There is no such thing as city/suburban ideology. Sure, cities and rural areas are different, but if Trump screws them both, they’re both capable of voting against him.
It literally happened in the exact example I gave. Only 35 seats total are up for reelection in the house but I was being clear about what I wanted.
That’s not possible though because the electorate makeup of rural counties has changed so significantly. The 76 election was 51 years ago… lots of things have changed in that timeframe. 51 years ago, California and Vermont were Republican strongholds, and Missouri was a powerful bellwether that was only wrong once between 1904 and 2012.
Who are you to dictate what I desire?
Is there any reason to trust these polls? I feel like they’ve been wrong since 2016
The problem with 2016 was that the polls accurately predicted who would win the popular vote, because that’s what they measure. The 270toWin poll based outcome showed Trump’s chance of victory LINK HERE, and so did 538 which is no longer available as it was purchased by ABC News and taken offline.
Trump’s loss in 2020 and victory again in 2024 were also predicted by both aggregate polls and online betting platforms.
The problem with poll inaccuracy is solved by two methods: increased sample size and giving priority based on perceived bias (gaining back points for having clear and accurate data available to the public).
Maybe?
I don’t have the time or energy to dive into the methodology to figure out if any poll is conducted scientifically. What I do know is that it’s way easier to build a bad poll, and easier still to hit the bricks and generate heaps of bad data.
What I really wish these would ask are things like: “if you had the only vote and could write-in anyone that is eligable, even if they’re not on the ballot, who would you choose?”… or: “Who is your favorite person in politics right now?” Disregarding of all the nonsense answers, you’d probably find out a lot more about hearts and minds versus whatever controlled choices major parties are propping up.
I think 2016 proved that we should actively ignore them and not get complacent based on poll numbers.
Since only 2016?
The Dems have done absolutely fuck-all to resist Trump, and damn near everything short of murder to resist Mamdani, and yet their lead grows and grows.
As it turns out, boycotting Kamala in 2024 and surrendering the whole country to fascism did jack shit to move the party left. Just like 2016.
Almost as if the only way to get progressive dems in office isn’t surrendering to Republicans in November, but voting for progressives in the primary.
Too bad the 2026 and 2028 elections will be entirely compromised by Trump and it’ll never matter again anyway.
You are acting like this was a plan. It wasnt a plan. It was a natural consequence of what happens when everyone is corrupt. Youre basically saying “vote for A, because it will be worse with B”. And no one votes for that. NO ONE! You cant shame people who didnt vote into voting. But you know what you can do? You can stop voting for prick in the Dems who 100% are corrupt as fuck, just because they are dems.
The party will only listen, once YOU and all those like YOU stop voting them in to power. The likes of Nancy fucking Pelosi, who suckering you all over 38 years. Feinstein, over 32 years. Schumer, over 26 years. The list goes on and on. Corrupt people, who put party and donor interests before the people. And you all keep voting them in.
You want things to change? Thats how you do it. Let them know that no one is safe.
Don’t worry, the Democratic establishment will figure out a way to quickly fuck this up before the midterm elections.
I’m sure they will choose a panel of milquetoast corporate centrist neo-liberal fuck wads for the people to choose from and again blame it on voter apathy. add a little corporate campaign, finance rule, bending to funnel the most amount of money towards their desired candidate and you have the classic recipe for “ Why do Democrats always lose elections?”
It is so much easier and so much more profitable to be the minority party of opposition to evil. You don’t need exciting new ideas, just exciting “back to normal” ideas. …and even “normal” can be made progressively shittier every cycle.
The rich and powerful can handpick their favorite candidates, negotiate a few table scraps in the direction of normal that they’re willing to accept, and call it a win. The campaign industrial complex gets to make a shit load of money.
Most importantly, their ultimate campaign slogan is “Vote for me, or else evil wins.” Easy money all around.
Then when nothing good happens during a Democrats’s turn, they can blame Democrats and then the Republicans they handpick get to ratchet things back in the rich’s direction again.
So fucking tired of people blaming the “establishment”.
The “establishment” didn’t give us Trump 2. Short-sighted, immature potential Democratic voters did.
How do you figure?
The establishment literally was Biden not bowing out after his 1st term, as he’d promised.
The establishment was not giving voters a choice in picking a candidate, and rather anointing Kamala Harris.
The establishment was having Harris run one of the worst campaigns in modern history with the largest war-chest (over $1.5B) at her disposal.
The establishment was setting up a candidate to lose, because they don’t care about winning; they care about maintaining the status quo.
The establishment is absolutely why we got Trump 2.0. How do you not see that?
Sadly the two party is the usa are treated as cults
Because “the establishment” doesn’t get a ballot. The people do.
People. Voted. For. That. Thing.
There’s a fair bit of evidence that the GOP tried to steal the election in 2020 and succeeded in 2024.
Sure. But I’ve seen enough red hats, and pickup trucks or front porches with flags to know people voted for this misery. It’s not impossible that MAGA cheated; dishonesty is in their nature - it’s actually “cheating” to say one thing and do another. However I don’t believe that they needed to cheat very hard.
I think the vote was pretty close, and that your country is just full of horrible people.
Pay attention. I dunno about your area, but those trump flags and maga hats have all but disappeared where I live. They’re being squeezed as well, and some will break ranks.
Of course they have, it’s not election season. Only the especially crazy crazies will continue tondisplay these signs indefinitely, but there are plenty of slightly kess crazy crazies who had them up during election season and voted for the mango-colored child rapist.
Or they’ll make some catastrophic legislative or otherwise strategic error on purpose to make sure the Republicans are on even ground. There’s always a Parliamentarian or a “Blue Slip Rule” to help the Democrats steal defeat from the jaws of victory!
Yeah, Democrats do stuff like that on “purpose”, sure that makes sense.
The Blue Slip Rule is not even a law, it’s “unofficial Senate tradition” that cost us a Supreme Court justice. The Democrats repeatedly shelf progressive legislation like student debt relief due to the advice of the Parliamentarian, an unelected appointee who the Republican have regularly fired when their opinion differs from the party’s legislative agenda. I could go on and on, volumes have been written on the phenomenon. How many individual occurrences of this need to happen before it forms the clear composite image of collaboration?
We’ll see, it’s still ages until the midterms. Let’s first assume there will be midterms.
Thats a very dodgy assumption.
Democratic Leadership: Hold my beer
Next headline, in November: “Unexpected last-minute swing to GOP.”
And the obvious conclusion will never be drawn.
Really, though, it says a lot about how shitty the democratic party is that the headline says “since 2018” instead of “since the beginning of time”. Trump is a disgusting, rancorous idiot. Everything about him is vile, from his appearance to his voice to his tiny reptilian brain. The fact that the democrats came in second to this human shitstain strongly suggests that the must have, oh i dunno, badly and repeatedly disappointed the american people.
Maybe they could shit-can their entire leadership and get behind someone like Mamdani. Or just disband and make room for a new party.
How many places besides NYC do you think a candidate like Mamdani can win? And I guess I’m asking for even a single point of data that backs this idea up, vs just a hunch that America secretly wants to get far-left.
We can’t wish a revolution into being, what are the first steps to getting there? How do we unite the people, stop fighting the culture wars so we can fight the class war?
Isn’t the first step just having some further left candidates run in the primaries?
First step is get the lead up to 33, so a left candidate is not just a nuisance.
the first step is abandoning the parties that abandoned the working class decades ago
I think a large proportion of Americans make hate and cruelty a primary consideration of their voting proclivities. It’s less about how bad the Democrats have fucked up and more about how they haven’t fucked up enough to get voters.
1/3 of eligible voters went for Trump. Another 1/3 went for Harris. The remaining 1/3 pretty much checked out. Outside of hate and cruelty, is the biggest problem ignorance or is it apathy? Don’t know, don’t care.
The biggest problem is voters who see no reason to vote, because the parties don’t represent them and don’t deliver what they want.
Meh, I don’t let voters off that easy. If nothing else there have been plenty of primaries where more participation could have helped fix that problem. It’s a two way street.
The only Congresional poll that matters is the one next November, and Republicans are doing everything they can to make sure that they can still control Congress, even if the Majority of voters don’t want them to.
Not true at all. Every well-conducted and reliable poll matters, because it determines where campaign money will be spent, where volunteers will be directed, what stops candidates make, and what issues to press on and which to pivot back to stump on.
Pretty dumb myopic take you have there, actually.
No, I think it’s the only correct take. Otherwise people get complacent. I don’t give a shit if the Democrats’ margin is large, it needs to be larger next November to counteract Republican ratfuckery. If Democrats are not ignoring this poll and managing this as if they are really 8 points down, they’ve already lost.
I disagree that it’s the only correct take.
The argument is “Data may cause people to behave in ways I don’t want them to, so I will assail the data to guide people to behaviors I do want.”
Like, I can understand and respect your position, but I don’t think it’s the only correct take.
I think that the structure of your argument is also used broadly by many groups to do terrible things. One can debate the merits of fighting fire with fire, but let’s at least do so with complete awareness.
This is the way. People need to show up in overwhelming numbers to the midterms, this time. It’s the only way to effectively counter Trump’s agenda. Democrats need to have the power to not only reverse course on what he’s doing, but also to remove him from office and prosecute every last mutherfucking one of them.
It worked during Bush’s 2nd term when the Senate and the House were blue. The opposition was strong enough to stifle Bush from being too out of control.
The damage may still continue and have been done, but, we need to stifle and slow this nightmare train down somehow. The mid-terms it has to be.
You might be right, but you could be less annoying about it.
Polls influence voting (people are more likely to vote for a perceived winner). And polls are easier to cook than elections.
None of that matters when they rig the results.
Pretty dumb and naive take YOU have here, actually
So Shittler will say elections are stolen and illegal when the midterms roll around and maga gets tossed to the curb? And then what?
Same as the first Trump admin. Dude can’t govern, and people will respond to that. Except this time he’s ethnically cleansing rather than just doing covid wrong.
Everyone in the US better hope dems can field a candidate through their fucked up primary system that’s gonna be young and re-electable. It’s gonna take at least 8 years to even slightly unfuck this mess.
8 years… ha ha ha!!! I know you said at least but I’m not sure will ever truly know how much they’ve fucked things up. I’m 55 and I doubt it will be fixed before I die.
And if they don’t put some guardrails with some serious teeth and consequences to fix all of things most politicians generally followed in good faith it’s just gonna happen again. I’m seriously starting to believe the American experiment is over. Late stage capitalism, tribalism, and any appearance of empathy have killed it.
I’m 28 and I doubt it’ll be meaningfully fixed before I die. Shit’s been beyond fucked basically my entire adult life, and just regular fucked since well before that.
Yeah I agree, we’ve been truly fucked since Doge. This might be the end of the experiment, but the empire will limp along for a long time, it’s just how comfortable it is to sit in the maw for us plebs.
Dude you must be young, we’ve been fucked since 9/11
Oh man i wish, I was a teenager and my mom came in and told me and my girlfriend a plane just hit the WTC. We turned on the TV and it was every channel. Watched the second plane hit.
Well that’s just depressing. I mean true but still depressing.
Seems unlikely but goddamn do I hope fukkin so
