Silly soldier, you’re not in the club.
He’s not rich enough to get away with insider trading.
And he didn’t give Trump his fair share.
No matter how much Polymarket pretends to be against this, it’s exactly how it’s supposed to work.
I know people call it glorified betting, and a ton of it is…but you can’t deny the reality that an anonymous crypto based being system is bound to be one of the best predictors of major events. For exactly the reason that insiders will inevitably find a way to make money off their knowledge.
Everyone gets their panties in a bunch about it, but I find it a fascinating experiment on manipulating greed.
You are repeating marketing. First of all Polymarket isn’t against this, they have openly welcomed insider trading. They claim insiders have they best information and thus make the prediction better. Second, when we actually look at the data, it turns out sites like Polymarket are only marginally better than actual guessing. It has nothing to do with predicting anything, it’s just straight up betting. There have been a couple of outliers, but those turned out to be because of insiders heavily betting. They skewed the results a lot and that’s not prediction, those people knew the outcome. Third, these kinds of companies heavily influence the betting themselves, often “buying the other side of the contract”. This raises the stakes and increases engagement. Having it appear one side is favored, means people tend to pile on.
There’s plenty of good stories and videos about how fucked up these “prediction markets” actually are. John Oliver just did an episode on it. I would personally recommend this Patrick Boyle video for a good overview: https://youtu.be/e0nsou-1Q2k
Tldr: It’s all a huge scam and rigged betting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_hangout
According to Victor Marchetti, a former special assistant to the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), a limited hangout is “spy jargon for a favorite and frequently used gimmick of the clandestine professionals. When their veil of secrecy is shredded and they can no longer rely on a phony cover story to misinform the public, they resort to admitting—sometimes even volunteering—some of the truth while still managing to withhold the key and damaging facts in the case. The public, however, is usually so intrigued by the new information that it never thinks to pursue the matter further”.
Yep, I was thinking something along these lines. This guy is a patsy, someone else placed that bet.
Where’s that Maduro guy anyway. He’s pretty tall!
They want their cut I guess…
