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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Democrats will take office on Jan 2nd and announce the need to compromise with Moderate Republicans about three days later. They’ll pass enormous bailouts for the tech industry, a marginally increased spending package for ICE and the Pentagon, a massive tax cut plan for middle class people with over $40k in auto loans, the Joe Manchin Memorial Coal Energy Independence Act, and then advance the “Act to Declare Donald Trump a Naughty Boy” which… gosh darnit… we just can’t get it out of committee because we don’t have the votes!

    Nonetheless, Democrats will declare that they outsmarted Trump, by tricking him into signing the “Make Israel Great Again” Act. And we’ll hit a bipartisan consensus on adding antisemites to the concentration camps. Also, Elon Musk will be given a trillion dollars, in a bag, out the back of the Capital Building. Please don’t ask how or why.

    I will be called a Russian bot for predicting this.


  • I don’t think Cuba has any kind of leverage that would cost the US anything.

    Cubans have their own military and mid-range weapons. They aren’t nearly as fortified as the Iranians, and they don’t have a straight line to Russia or China for support, but they can absolutely put missiles all along the Gulf Coast if push comes to shove. They’re - bare minimum - as dangerous as Yemen is to Saudi Arabia.

    It would be hell on earth for the island, though. Nobody actually wants a shooting war with the US. God only knows how many civilians would die as a result.

    And the real second-order consequence of a US invasion of Cuba would be the flood of refugees. People would flee the island in droves. Jamaica, the Yucatan, the Bahamas, Haiti, hell Florida - they’d be inundated with people fleeing the country. As bad as US relations are with the Caribbean states, this would make things so much worse. You’re talking about and island of 10M people. It would be chaos.




  • At some point, someone has to be out there willing to fuck with the machinery of the election. The problem Orbán has is his shrinking pool of people willing to do that. He’s running against his own PM, ffs. It’s not like we’re seeing a sea change in Hungarian politics. It’s just local plutocrats deciding they’ve had enough of Orbán’s ego and are trading him out for someone more pliable.

    Same thing happened to Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine. He fucked around way too hard and galvanized the whole country against him.