No matter how much Polymarket pretends to be against this, it’s exactly how it’s supposed to work.
I know people call it glorified betting, and a ton of it is…but you can’t deny the reality that an anonymous crypto based being system is bound to be one of the best predictors of major events. For exactly the reason that insiders will inevitably find a way to make money off their knowledge.
Everyone gets their panties in a bunch about it, but I find it a fascinating experiment on manipulating greed.
You are repeating marketing. First of all Polymarket isn’t against this, they have openly welcomed insider trading. They claim insiders have they best information and thus make the prediction better.
Second, when we actually look at the data, it turns out sites like Polymarket are only marginally better than actual guessing. It has nothing to do with predicting anything, it’s just straight up betting. There have been a couple of outliers, but those turned out to be because of insiders heavily betting. They skewed the results a lot and that’s not prediction, those people knew the outcome.
Third, these kinds of companies heavily influence the betting themselves, often “buying the other side of the contract”. This raises the stakes and increases engagement. Having it appear one side is favored, means people tend to pile on.
There’s plenty of good stories and videos about how fucked up these “prediction markets” actually are. John Oliver just did an episode on it. I would personally recommend this Patrick Boyle video for a good overview: https://youtu.be/e0nsou-1Q2k
No matter how much Polymarket pretends to be against this, it’s exactly how it’s supposed to work.
I know people call it glorified betting, and a ton of it is…but you can’t deny the reality that an anonymous crypto based being system is bound to be one of the best predictors of major events. For exactly the reason that insiders will inevitably find a way to make money off their knowledge.
Everyone gets their panties in a bunch about it, but I find it a fascinating experiment on manipulating greed.
It’s a spying tool that inteligence agencies tried to implement in foreign countries before, but failed. You brought it on yourself.
Also, its often self-fullfiling profecy. And it’s not as accurate as they claim.
You are repeating marketing. First of all Polymarket isn’t against this, they have openly welcomed insider trading. They claim insiders have they best information and thus make the prediction better. Second, when we actually look at the data, it turns out sites like Polymarket are only marginally better than actual guessing. It has nothing to do with predicting anything, it’s just straight up betting. There have been a couple of outliers, but those turned out to be because of insiders heavily betting. They skewed the results a lot and that’s not prediction, those people knew the outcome. Third, these kinds of companies heavily influence the betting themselves, often “buying the other side of the contract”. This raises the stakes and increases engagement. Having it appear one side is favored, means people tend to pile on.
There’s plenty of good stories and videos about how fucked up these “prediction markets” actually are. John Oliver just did an episode on it. I would personally recommend this Patrick Boyle video for a good overview: https://youtu.be/e0nsou-1Q2k
Tldr: It’s all a huge scam and rigged betting.