Consumer sentiment fell nearly 11% from March to April and 34% from this time last year, according to new data from University of Michigan’s authoritative survey, released Friday.
The drop continued a three-month trend brought about by Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on products imported to the U.S., a promise Trump fulfilled last week in what he called a “Liberation Day” ceremony at the White House.
…
The Yale Budget Lab estimated the average household will be $4,700 poorer as a result of Trump’s tariff gamble.
Now that everyone knows he is pumping and dumping the markets… Will everyone play into it to make a ton of money?
The process is simple, in 80some days wait for the news to say "trump will apply xx.x% tariffs on such and such countries. Wait a few hours to watch the markets tumble. Let the market keep dropping like mad. Finally, on the 90th day, when the news says he is about to do it, and the markets take a big dump, just jump in and buy shares in everything like a crazy person. Now wait and watch the markets do a dead cat bounce. Here you can sell at the high point until you recuperate some money. Or wait for when he says "nah, we’re cool! I wasn’t gonna do it! And the markets soar. That’s where you sell all. That locks in some profit. Then you just go back to whatever you were doing before. Wait here until he dumps more tariffs on the market.
You need to have wealth to really benefit. Say I make an awesome 7% on both the downside and upside and have $5,000 to gamble with. If you could somehow predict that play 3 times and invest all your 5k, you would walk away with an extra 2.5k, which while nice, isn’t going to be life changing. Now if you have millions on the other hand…
You could leverage your position with derivatives, but unless you know exactly when things will happen you could easily wipe out your $5k in a margin call.
If one’s situation warrants it, day trading could be safer. I work on shifts in a relatively easy job and honestly, I find day trading somehow more controllable and predictable than investing. Plus, I have earned some hefty amounts so far in just couple minutes and hours than working or waiting years for stock value to go up. But i would not recommend day trading to a complete newb like I have been before lol.
Still akin to gambling. Although I do admit even the daily tariff news, seems comically easy to predict how the market reacts. I guess TD sold my account to Schwabb? So couldn’t even play if I wanted to because I need to reactivate it or some shit.
You are not wrong that it is akin to gambling. That’s why I prefer to hold for about fifteen to thirty minutes, or one hour and scalp. Oversimplifying my strategy, I buy the dip and hold until a breakout comes. Hold until the peak goes as far high as it could go. Sell before it dips badly, then buy again. Rinse and repeat. But I must admit this works on certain stocks with more predictable patterns, and the downtime periods at my job allows me to keep my eyes on the screen to day trade. I am not experienced and expert to study the stocks and use technical analysis to predict and automate the process.
I actually have an unfortunate amount of knowledge through education of the whole system… Didn’t end up sticking with it because I didn’t want to scam stupid and old people for transaction fees, and that’s like half of investment finance. But anyway… Vibe trading is definitely a thing. It just works until it doesn’t… I think it has to do with people starting to intuitively understand the way algorithms are pushing the market. They get really good at it, until the algorithms eventually change and they lose money.
I think it’s about not becoming overwhelmingly risk tolerant. They usually take larger and larger positions, becoming more sure of themselves before the market as they understand it changes, and they hoist themselves up by their own petards.
Thank you for the advise. I try not to increase the risk as I have lost money, way before I got the sense to finally read a beginner’s book. The book’s advise is great and its basic theory works, but mostly for large cap stocks and those with more predictable patterns. There are certain stocks which I day trade because of aforementioned reasons.
Which book was that, out of interest, if you’d recommend it?
Will everyone play into it to make a ton of money?
America’s decline will come at some point, sooner or later, so I might as well play the game. Short the American stock market before it crashes and World War 3 happens!
Ha the consumers confidence huh. We just dump and pumped global markets with a Tweet on truth social. The whitehouse is being run like North Korea. What about the investor confidence.
Consumers don’t need confidence when investors pull out of the country and we all lose our jobs.
Not to mention the mass sell-off of debt bonds that is going to bankrupt our country.
Consumers are the victims here. No one actually cares about their “feelings”.
Unfortunately, Trump doesn’t care about the word “No.” It only makes him more determined.
As evidenced by his raping a woman
No no - not “shattered confidence” . . . “Liberated”!!
He had a whole poster and everything.
He liberated all the dollars from my bank account.
And my trading account!
I don’t have consumer confidence because I don’t know if the industry my company works in is even going to exist in a year.
Me too, fam. Me too.
Hey that’s what i said!
Is there any way I can make this prick not affect my non American life the way my American trump voting ex friends told me its none of my business
Nah Pizza cake did a great comic on a guy drilling a whole in the bottom of the boat we are all floating in. We all go down together and only the strong will survive.
But also, don’t you dare call out the inaction of cowardly white American liberals on Lemmy- they’ll demand to know WHAT YOU HAVE DONE to fix their problems and when that doesn’t work they’ll insinuate it’s not your place to have an opinion since you don’t live there.
Meanwhile they whine about how they couldn’t possibly take any action because they MIGHT GET IN TROUBLE! Best they can do is a cute little easily-ignored march on a Saturday if the weather’s nice and they’ve gotten the proper permits.
They’re nearly as bad as MAGA trash.
Your racism is unwelcome
I cannot believe how many people/comments i hear that are scared to go to a peaceful protest. My 70 year old uncle didn’t go because he didn’t have a buddy. I called him hours before. Same with the die hard internet commies. Where’s the fucking revolution. Where are all the bodies resisting the fascist.
What exactly is consumer confidence anyway? Is it like just the general opinion on how our economy is doing? Or is it a measure of something specific?
It’s the belief that you can spend your extra money because you’re not going to go broke next week due to the stability of “the economy”.
I’m personally saving every single penny and not buying a single thing beyond what I absolutely unequivocally need.
Note: It’s also entirely possible I may take my extra dough out of my bank and buy gold like one of the crazies on TV because confidence in the dollar is… slipping.
Both.
Copied from various sources elsewhere:
Consumer confidence is a catch-all phrase for the opinions and attitudes of consumers about the current and future strength of the economy.
Consumer confidence index (CCI) is a standardised confidence indicator providing an indication of future developments of households’ consumption and saving.
The Consumer Confidence Index is based on the Consumer Confidence Survey, which has a responding sample size of 3,000 questionnaires. The survey was initially conducted every two months starting in 1967 but changed to monthly tracking in 1977.
There are five questions asked in the survey. The first two relate to present economic conditions while the remaining three are related to future expectations.
Thanks!
it basically measures willingness to spend
no consumerism, bye bye US economy
I may be completely wrong. But I always took it to mean people spending less on stuff they can live without. Either because they can no longer afford it or are expecting something bad to happen on the wallet front
Bstix had the correct answer. These are regular surveys provided to different regions of the country to gauge sentiment. How do you feel about the economy today, what do you think about the future. They have a similar one that goes out to business leaders. When you look at the business confidence and consumer confidence you get a picture of how people in that area will spend, and invest money. It’s not anyones favorite data point, but it can be a strong indicator of recession.
I believe during covid consumer sentiment cratered first and the economy went after it.
