Consumer sentiment fell nearly 11% from March to April and 34% from this time last year, according to new data from University of Michigan’s authoritative survey, released Friday.
The drop continued a three-month trend brought about by Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on products imported to the U.S., a promise Trump fulfilled last week in what he called a “Liberation Day” ceremony at the White House.
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The Yale Budget Lab estimated the average household will be $4,700 poorer as a result of Trump’s tariff gamble.
Now that everyone knows he is pumping and dumping the markets… Will everyone play into it to make a ton of money?
The process is simple, in 80some days wait for the news to say "trump will apply xx.x% tariffs on such and such countries. Wait a few hours to watch the markets tumble. Let the market keep dropping like mad. Finally, on the 90th day, when the news says he is about to do it, and the markets take a big dump, just jump in and buy shares in everything like a crazy person. Now wait and watch the markets do a dead cat bounce. Here you can sell at the high point until you recuperate some money. Or wait for when he says "nah, we’re cool! I wasn’t gonna do it! And the markets soar. That’s where you sell all. That locks in some profit. Then you just go back to whatever you were doing before. Wait here until he dumps more tariffs on the market.
You need to have wealth to really benefit. Say I make an awesome 7% on both the downside and upside and have $5,000 to gamble with. If you could somehow predict that play 3 times and invest all your 5k, you would walk away with an extra 2.5k, which while nice, isn’t going to be life changing. Now if you have millions on the other hand…
You could leverage your position with derivatives, but unless you know exactly when things will happen you could easily wipe out your $5k in a margin call.
If one’s situation warrants it, day trading could be safer. I work on shifts in a relatively easy job and honestly, I find day trading somehow more controllable and predictable than investing. Plus, I have earned some hefty amounts so far in just couple minutes and hours than working or waiting years for stock value to go up. But i would not recommend day trading to a complete newb like I have been before lol.
Still akin to gambling. Although I do admit even the daily tariff news, seems comically easy to predict how the market reacts. I guess TD sold my account to Schwabb? So couldn’t even play if I wanted to because I need to reactivate it or some shit.
You are not wrong that it is akin to gambling. That’s why I prefer to hold for about fifteen to thirty minutes, or one hour and scalp. Oversimplifying my strategy, I buy the dip and hold until a breakout comes. Hold until the peak goes as far high as it could go. Sell before it dips badly, then buy again. Rinse and repeat. But I must admit this works on certain stocks with more predictable patterns, and the downtime periods at my job allows me to keep my eyes on the screen to day trade. I am not experienced and expert to study the stocks and use technical analysis to predict and automate the process.
I actually have an unfortunate amount of knowledge through education of the whole system… Didn’t end up sticking with it because I didn’t want to scam stupid and old people for transaction fees, and that’s like half of investment finance. But anyway… Vibe trading is definitely a thing. It just works until it doesn’t… I think it has to do with people starting to intuitively understand the way algorithms are pushing the market. They get really good at it, until the algorithms eventually change and they lose money.
I think it’s about not becoming overwhelmingly risk tolerant. They usually take larger and larger positions, becoming more sure of themselves before the market as they understand it changes, and they hoist themselves up by their own petards.
Thank you for the advise. I try not to increase the risk as I have lost money, way before I got the sense to finally read a beginner’s book. The book’s advise is great and its basic theory works, but mostly for large cap stocks and those with more predictable patterns. There are certain stocks which I day trade because of aforementioned reasons.
Which book was that, out of interest, if you’d recommend it?
“Master the Art of Trading” by Daniel Lewis. It is amazing for beginners. When I started applying the theories, it greatly improved my chances with day trading. I would recommend applying the theories on demo mode first of your chosen trading platform.
America’s decline will come at some point, sooner or later, so I might as well play the game. Short the American stock market before it crashes and World War 3 happens!