It’s gotta be either this or evidence that the base is further left than they thought and moderating to the right was a dogshit strategy. Nothing else seems like it’s threatening enough to the establishment to warrant burying the report. Though if I was gonna bet, I’d be putting it on support for Israel.
This is take from an American historian and she also mentions that US has this happen 2 times already and people woke up and stopped it. Let’s hope this time it won’t be different.
You don’t need to bet, you can just look up surveys on whether or not US voters say the Israel-Palestine conflict is important to them, and you’ll find that an extremely small minority of voters say it is.
“Somewhat” is doing some heavy lifting there. Of course I mean: important enough to alter their vote. So 22% per the article say the Israel-Hamas conflict is “very” important (which was less in 2024). Those who would base their vote on it is a smaller subset. Those who would base their vote on it and not think Trump was significantly worse a yet smaller subset of this subset. Some of the 22% might favour a tougher approach against Hamas, and/or support the Gaza genocide.
All this is even still ignoring the fact that Jewish Americans heavily favour the Democrats, and while many certainly aren’t Bibi fanboys, the Democrats cannot afford to alienate this part of their voter base (and in the oligarchic system of the US, that they have above-average incomes also makes them more valuable voters), making it less than obvious that a more hardline approach towards Israel would bear electoral fruit.
Of course I mean: important enough to alter their vote.
Can you point me to a survey that tracks this? You suggested there was survey data to support your claim, but I am unaware of any survey that asks if Israel/Palestine is important enough to change votes.
“This was a preventable disaster,” Cook said, “but Harris and the Democratic Party leadership prioritized the agendas of corporate donors and gambled on a centrist path, while largely abandoning working-class, young, and progressive voters.”
You and I are in agreement on the political question here: The Kamala campaign’s support for Israel’s genocide lost her the election.
But there is a specific technical question I’m asking in this argument: is there an American poll that asked potential voters if their vote is changed by the Israel/Palestine conflict?
I went through the links you provided quickly and I didn’t see any indication that this question was asked.
Because I’m not a Pew Research historian, and I’m not writing a research paper here.
You’re correct that data from 2024 would be more relevant, but 2026 data is still revealing. The commenter said that an “extremely small minority” cared about the conflict [in 2024].
Are you suggesting that they are correct, an extremely small minority cared during 2024, but now in 2026 that has ballooned to >50%? That is an extraordinary claim; if you are making such a claim then please provide evidence.
You don’t need to be a pew research historian to think critically and evaluate a source. You even posted the date. You were most of the way there.
Are you suggesting that they are correct, an extremely small minority cared during 2024, but now in 2026 that has ballooned to >50%? That is an extraordinary claim; if you are making such a claim then please provide evidence.
No I am not. I’m pointing out the issue of your data set.
I doubt it was a small minority, but 53% (or whatever it actually was during the election) of people can somewhat care about an issue without it being their primary voting issue. The people that made it their primary issue was likely a small minority of voters. That’s my take anyhow.
you can just look up surveys on whether or not US voters say the Israel-Palestine conflict is important to them, and you’ll find that an extremely small minority of voters say it is
Now you say “it being their primary voting issue” which is a much stronger assertion. Things can still be important even if there’s something else even more important.
I think it’s much simpler - they are concerned that the report contains research on effective Republican tactics, as well as ways they can be countered in the future, which would give Republicans a lot of useful information for future elections.
This seems very obvious, but we are in a political era where everyone just defaults to cynicism I guess
So the hypothesis is that somehow the DNC ($6m in debt, raising ~$10m/month) somehow came up with valuable information that the RNC ($110m cash in hand, raising ~$20m/month) doesn’t know and doesn’t have access to?
Except he was always vaguely hinting that by end the war he meant give Isreal everything they wanted therefore “ending” the war. Same with Russia and Ukraine.
Some of us draw a harder line: as long as Israel is genocidal, no support. Sanctions instead. So where’s a party that actually runs on that?
It’s gotta be either this or evidence that the base is further left than they thought and moderating to the right was a dogshit strategy. Nothing else seems like it’s threatening enough to the establishment to warrant burying the report. Though if I was gonna bet, I’d be putting it on support for Israel.
3rd option would be evidence of election fraud by GOP but they are afraid DOJ will go after them.
LMAO if that’s it, we’re even more fucked than I thought.
We are actually very fucked unless Americans woke up.
https://youtu.be/XaqKHHbSOEc
This is take from an American historian and she also mentions that US has this happen 2 times already and people woke up and stopped it. Let’s hope this time it won’t be different.
You don’t need to bet, you can just look up surveys on whether or not US voters say the Israel-Palestine conflict is important to them, and you’ll find that an extremely small minority of voters say it is.
Trump won mainly because, among swing voters, he was ranked more favourably than Harris when it came to the economy and immigration.
Pew Research - Apr 7, 2026 survey
“Somewhat” is doing some heavy lifting there. Of course I mean: important enough to alter their vote. So 22% per the article say the Israel-Hamas conflict is “very” important (which was less in 2024). Those who would base their vote on it is a smaller subset. Those who would base their vote on it and not think Trump was significantly worse a yet smaller subset of this subset. Some of the 22% might favour a tougher approach against Hamas, and/or support the Gaza genocide.
All this is even still ignoring the fact that Jewish Americans heavily favour the Democrats, and while many certainly aren’t Bibi fanboys, the Democrats cannot afford to alienate this part of their voter base (and in the oligarchic system of the US, that they have above-average incomes also makes them more valuable voters), making it less than obvious that a more hardline approach towards Israel would bear electoral fruit.
I think you’re just moving the goalposts now.
Can you point me to a survey that tracks this? You suggested there was survey data to support your claim, but I am unaware of any survey that asks if Israel/Palestine is important enough to change votes.
There’s dozens of polls that show how the Dems position on Israel/Palestine cost them votes
The data on why the Democrats failed to win is clear
Here Are 34 Polls That Show A Ceasefire & Weapons Embargo Help Kamala Win
Kamala Would Have Won With A Weapons Embargo
Democrats’ Working-Class Failures, Analysis Finds, Are ‘Why Trump Beat Harris’
2024 Post-Election Report: A retrospective and longitudinal data analysis on why Trump beat Harris
How Trump and Harris Voters See America’s Role in the World
Majority of Americans support progressive policies such as higher minimum wage, free college
Democrats should run on the popular progressive ideas, but not the unpopular ones
Here Are 7 ‘Left Wing’ Ideas (Almost) All Americans Can Get Behind
Finding common ground: 109 national policy proposals with bipartisan support
Progressive Policies Are Popular Policies
Tim Walz’s Progressive Policies Popular With Republicans in Swing States
https://blueprint2024.com/polling/harris-poll-positive-message-8-8/
https://blueprint-research.com/polling/distance-biden-ads-message-test-10-15/
We know what the autopsy is about, and why they won’t release it.
You and I are in agreement on the political question here: The Kamala campaign’s support for Israel’s genocide lost her the election.
But there is a specific technical question I’m asking in this argument: is there an American poll that asked potential voters if their vote is changed by the Israel/Palestine conflict?
I went through the links you provided quickly and I didn’t see any indication that this question was asked.
I’m not sure that exact poll has been done, not to my knowledge
Why are you linking to a study that took place more than a year after the election?
In the context of this thread it’s more important to know how people felt during the election
Because I’m not a Pew Research historian, and I’m not writing a research paper here.
You’re correct that data from 2024 would be more relevant, but 2026 data is still revealing. The commenter said that an “extremely small minority” cared about the conflict [in 2024].
Are you suggesting that they are correct, an extremely small minority cared during 2024, but now in 2026 that has ballooned to >50%? That is an extraordinary claim; if you are making such a claim then please provide evidence.
You don’t need to be a pew research historian to think critically and evaluate a source. You even posted the date. You were most of the way there.
No I am not. I’m pointing out the issue of your data set.
I doubt it was a small minority, but 53% (or whatever it actually was during the election) of people can somewhat care about an issue without it being their primary voting issue. The people that made it their primary issue was likely a small minority of voters. That’s my take anyhow.
Up-thread you said:
Now you say “it being their primary voting issue” which is a much stronger assertion. Things can still be important even if there’s something else even more important.
So where will you be moving the goalposts next?
I never said that if you look up thread you’ll see that was another user…
Fish for an argument elsewhere. I just want people to think about their sources a bit
Great, so you do agree with me. I appreciate it.
Yes? That doesn’t address the dataset issue which was all I was pointing out.
I think it’s much simpler - they are concerned that the report contains research on effective Republican tactics, as well as ways they can be countered in the future, which would give Republicans a lot of useful information for future elections.
This seems very obvious, but we are in a political era where everyone just defaults to cynicism I guess
So the hypothesis is that somehow the DNC ($6m in debt, raising ~$10m/month) somehow came up with valuable information that the RNC ($110m cash in hand, raising ~$20m/month) doesn’t know and doesn’t have access to?
Seems very unlikely, not obvious at all.
You are giving people way too much credit here. Your average voter for either side isn’t thinking this hard.
Hence “beginning.”
I don’t understand this one. Both sides seem to support this?
Trump ran explicitly on ending the “war”. A lot of people knew it was bullshit but some people held out hope and voted for him.
Except he was always vaguely hinting that by end the war he meant give Isreal everything they wanted therefore “ending” the war. Same with Russia and Ukraine.