Yes or no ??

  • Tabitha ☢️[she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
    1·
    6 hours ago

    I think the more pertinent question would be: is the US willing to commit enough ground forces for such a thing? Imagine the political fallout of adding a 3rd mass casualty war to this list:

    • Vietnam (58k dead, 300k wounded)
    • Iraq (4.5k dead, 32k wounded)

    for comparison, Iran is probably less than 20 dead, less than 500 wounded, and the US hasn’t committed ground troops, and is already an embarrassing failure.

    • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.clubEnglish
      9·
      1 day ago

      Yeah. The USA engaged in one raid to take the current head of state but left the rest of the country mostly intact.

        • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.clubEnglish
          41·
          1 day ago

          Control of the gold and oil wealth was given by the remaining government and its release wasn’t enough to topple the Venezuelan government.

          • ☂️-@lemmy.ml
            3·
            22 hours ago

            does it matter if the remaining government gave the us all they demanded in the first place?

            • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.clubEnglish
              1·
              21 hours ago

              In the context of “what did the military action physically do?” it is important to recognize the difference between direct action and additional effects caused by the reaction from the affected government.

              The attack on Venezuela was orders of magnitude less than the attack/war with Iran. Yet, Venezuela gave up financial control of its oil supply while Iran might be getting unprecedented control over a strategic waterway. If a government is going to resist American imperialism, it needs both the means and the will to resist. Iran has it, Venezuela didn’t have it, and early indications seem like Cuba is more like Venezuela than Iran.

              • ☂️-@lemmy.ml
                2·
                16 hours ago

                sure, venezuela was really not that sovereign in the first place if that’s all it took. i could say that of most of latin america that i’m aware of tbh.

  • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.clubEnglish
    10·
    1 day ago

    I don’t want the USA to invade Cuba, but I don’t think that Cuba could credibly resist an occupation.

    Cuba is isolated from any ally who could offer military supplies, including drones. It is also fairly close to the US mainland, allowing for easy supply from the US.

    What I expect would happen is that the US would force some minor restoration of capital to pre-revolution owners and install a government filled with a mix of government collaborators and Cuban-Americans with a mandate to transform the Cuban economy.

    Unless the new government is wildly incompetent and corrupt, I expect that there would be enough stateside support to ensure that the new government is successful for the first few years. Keeping enough collaborators, which is something likely to happen with Trump, would likely prevent the whole government from engaging in an organized resistance. The likely dropping off the embargo will also allow an increase in economic conditions on the island, muting resistance of the rest of the citizenry.