It really depends where.

I’m fairly optimistic about most of EU. Last time we had energy crisis they put windfall taxes on energy and banking sectors to stop price gauging. They are already talking about doing the same thing which will slow down inflation. Spain, where I live, invested heavily into renewables in the last couple of years so the current fossil fuel increases don’t have almost any effect on electricity prices. There’s continuing push for public transport and most people can survive with minimal driving. My guess is food prices will go up, unemployment will go up, growth will slow down in many sectors but it will be manageable.

In US though… Inflation will skyrocket (both because of food and energy), people won’t be able to go anywhere, the completely inept government will not be able to handle the crisis and probably will just continue to ignore it. I expect widespread hunger and misery.

I have no idea what an economic crisis would look like anymore. Ever since 2008, it seems the playback for any sign of economic trouble has been printing ridiculous amounts of money and shoving it directly into the pockets of rich people while playing a shell game with bad debts. This seems to allow the terrible economy to keep limping along.

Since our country is being run by an idiot it’s anybody’s guess.

The optimistic scenario for the economy is a pessimistic scenario for the world.

For the economy to do well would require the AI bubble to not pop. It would mean that these absurd valuations for the AI companies turn out to be correct. That all the circular financing somehow comes good and all these ridiculous-seeming bets about the future of AI turn out to be at least partially correct. It will require that the companies that fired workers to replace them with chatbots turned out to have made a good and profitable decision. It’s the scenario where Musk becomes a trillionaire.

I’m pretty gloomy based on

• Pax Americana destabilizing/collapsing; wouldn’t be surprised to see some minor parties make a move
• Hormuz will remain closed, because USA is anti-diplomatic and Iran has nothing to lose
• AI spending will continue, but the money will start to need to be real, and the firings will continue until AI wins
• El Niño will further disrupt food security
• global warming will disrupt everything

The rich will get richer while the rest of us will become poorer due to our pay not beating inflation. You know, the same as every year since market deregulation in the 80.

The global economy is severely weakened, but stable. There is also a long list of developments that could crater everything, both literally and figuratively, and very little to look forward to for the vast majority of the population.

Best case scenario is the ending of multiple hostilities, allowing the resumption of trade, and a slow grinding recovery.

Worst case scenario is an extinction event, either caused by escalation in Ukraine, or to a lesser extent Iran, leading to nuclear conflict.

Both extreme’s are unlikely, and the entire range between them is just various levels of who is going to get fucked.

Private equity black box Enron style collapse taking down a couple of over leveraged major banks requiring trillion dollar taxpayer bailout and the total dismantling of any social programs in the name of austerity

In other words, it’s socialism or barbarism

I don’t think the “economy” has ever actually picked up in my lifetime. At least not for the working class, I don’t give two fucks if something happens to billionaires.

Bad.

It looks bad.

F U C K E D

Next year could be slightly better or worse. The next decade will definitely be worse, as climate change really starts to bite. Over the next century? We are as fucked as the planet will be, unless some serious societal changes happen. Trouble is they won’t happen while billionaire psychopaths control everything.

Leading economic indicators are slightly down: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/

Economic sentiment (one example https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ ) is sharply down.

Predicting the economy is difficult, many different people bet real money both ways.

The best summarization I recommend considering is the discussion of the “K” shaped economy. Standards seem to be shifting, those with wealth seem to be doing well if not growing. Those at the margin or poorer seem to be getting worse. So you can have two true statements that the stock market is soaring and GDP is growing, AND most people are facing declining economic prospects.

I’m a stranger on the Internet, so don’t put too much weight on my analysis. Check historically reputable resources and even then take their predictions with a grain of salt.

I don’t know about any global crisis, however I’m feeling optimistic about the Russian invasion ending within a year, hopefully allowing my country (Finland) to continue trading. I also hope fossil fuel usage starts declining. I’m feeling cautiously optimistic, atleast about my country.