What you are ignoring us that the new Congress will be in place by then, and as long as the election isn’t ratfucked the Democrats will probably gain a slim House majority. This means not only that the Democratic Speaker will be third in line for the Presidency, but also that the Democratic House (and the Senate)will have to approve whoever Vance picks as his VP. They could just sit on it and not do anything, in which case the VP slot remains vacant, and that House Speaker is now second in line (plus, ties in the Senate can’t be broken, which can be handy if Republicans still hold that.)
So, they may pull the trigger* early if they don’t think the Congressional election is in the bag
What you are ignoring us that the new Congress will be in place by then, and as long as the election isn’t ratfucked the Democrats will probably gain a slim House majority. This means not only that the Democratic Speaker will be third in line for the Presidency, but also that the Democratic House (and the Senate)will have to approve whoever Vance picks as his VP. They could just sit on it and not do anything, in which case the VP slot remains vacant, and that House Speaker is now second in line (plus, ties in the Senate can’t be broken, which can be handy if Republicans still hold that.)
So, they may pull the trigger* early if they don’t think the Congressional election is in the bag
*= Hey, FBI, that’s only a metaphor…
Vance is going to need that new, impeachment-ready Congress in place before his coup, or his coup will fail.