Venezuela elected a China-friendly government and we responded by kidnapping the President.
Venezuela didn’t join China though. In Taiwan, an actually China-friendly government would mean Taiwan becoming part of China and thus having Chinese protection from the US military. Short of reuniting the Chinas, there can be no mainland-china-friendly government in Taiwan because mainland China doesn’t want any relations that aren’t direct ownership of Taiwan.
Short of reuniting the Chinas, there can be no mainland-china-friendly government in Taiwan
That’s simply not true. The current government in Beijing is happy with any thawing of tension and increase in trade/travel between Taiwan and the mainland, particularly with an eye towards increased private mainland investment in the island and high tech exports to mainland industries.
Improving the flow of trade between the island and the coast means predicating more of Taiwan’s economy on friendly relations with mainland industry. And that creates the kind of political gravity Beijing bureaucrats used to rope in Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea. Incidentally, its a salty subject for North Koreans, as Kim’s Juche philosophy staunchly rejects critical utilities and resources coming from outside the sovereign territory.
But the old line “China thinks in centuries” holds here. All Xi is working towards is reconciliation. The hand wringing about “Imminent Chinese Invasion!” is US bluster intended to justify severing civilian trade and travel with the island preemptively. Americans need Taiwanese residents to be terrified of Chinese incursion in order to alienate the island from Chinese business and culture. Because that’s the real long term play.
Venezuela didn’t join China though. In Taiwan, an actually China-friendly government would mean Taiwan becoming part of China and thus having Chinese protection from the US military. Short of reuniting the Chinas, there can be no mainland-china-friendly government in Taiwan because mainland China doesn’t want any relations that aren’t direct ownership of Taiwan.
They dramatically increased business with China to evade our sanctions. We responded by tightening controls over the Panama Canal and encircling the Venezuelan coastline to halt sea trade.
That’s simply not true. The current government in Beijing is happy with any thawing of tension and increase in trade/travel between Taiwan and the mainland, particularly with an eye towards increased private mainland investment in the island and high tech exports to mainland industries.
Improving the flow of trade between the island and the coast means predicating more of Taiwan’s economy on friendly relations with mainland industry. And that creates the kind of political gravity Beijing bureaucrats used to rope in Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea. Incidentally, its a salty subject for North Koreans, as Kim’s Juche philosophy staunchly rejects critical utilities and resources coming from outside the sovereign territory.
But the old line “China thinks in centuries” holds here. All Xi is working towards is reconciliation. The hand wringing about “Imminent Chinese Invasion!” is US bluster intended to justify severing civilian trade and travel with the island preemptively. Americans need Taiwanese residents to be terrified of Chinese incursion in order to alienate the island from Chinese business and culture. Because that’s the real long term play.