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John Richard@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 9 months ago

Trump has taken the lead over Harris for first time in 538 forecast.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Trump has taken the lead over Harris for first time in 538 forecast.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

John Richard@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 9 months ago
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Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
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      9 months ago

      If I told you that you had a five in six chance to roll the dice and not roll a one, and then you rolled the dice and got a one, was what I told you wrong?

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          9 months ago

          Here is a direct quote from 538:

          538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

          Source

          In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.

          And even if it isn’t getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?

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            • TheKingBombOmbKiller@lemm.ee
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              9 months ago

              What would accurate odds in the previous two presidential elections look like to you?

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