Now, these problems have been fairly obvious for at least a decade. Why are they only becoming acute now? Well, international economists are fond of citing Dornbusch’s Law: “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” What happened in China’s case was that the government was able to mask the problem of inadequate consumer spending for a number of years by promoting a gigantic real estate bubble. In fact, China’s real estate sector became insanely large by international standards.
Yeah, it’s a believe it when you see it thing at this point. They might stagnate out economically or have internal supply issues, but there’s a world of difference between that and actual regime instability.
Case in point: Zimbabwe is still run by largely the same group of guys that ordered the 100-trillion dollar bills made.
Your annual reminder for the past ten years that “China is about to collapse any day now”
Per the article:
This is a well known feature of all complex systems. How they change is “not at all, and then suddenly”.
Yet people always insist they must change slowly and steadily.
Closely followed by, “Trump is in trouble this time” articles that we’ve been getting for the last 6 years.
Yeah, it’s a believe it when you see it thing at this point. They might stagnate out economically or have internal supply issues, but there’s a world of difference between that and actual regime instability.
Case in point: Zimbabwe is still run by largely the same group of guys that ordered the 100-trillion dollar bills made.
Yep you can definitely build lots of skyscrapers, then just demolish them without any financial repercussion.