Time will reveal all things. As of now there is no way to know between us which is correct and which is not. I suspect more violence won’t aid in bringing lasting peace and that’s more violence from both sides, not just one or the other.

The way things are looking currently scenario two seems to be becoming more likely short of external help. If enough assistance is given to stem Israeli aggression the fight will likely continue later which would bring us to scenario three and possibly at that time back to scenario two.

Now for the mystery scenario four, aka both get wiped out. It is very possible if we reach ASI and it goes rogue or there’s a biosphere collapse due to humanities continued destruction of the global environment. I don’t assume both would get wiped out anytime soon by a third party so I’m mostly assuming it would happen through some global event. Something apocalyptic. In that case all this suffering would have been for nothing quite unfortunately. Both parties lose.