I saw this thread and came here to bring notice of something that was decided by actions over the Persian Gulf two months ago, and is now happening.
This is not Russian propaganda, this is an Ukrainian analysis of the situation.
The situation, put shortly:
- Trump needed to get his way against Iran so badly, that he wasted a decade’s worth of missile defense
- everyone who depended on Patriot PAC-3 is experiencing a severe shortage
- Lockheed Martin manages to make 53 interceptors per month (they hope to increase this)
- Russia meanwhile increased its production of Iskander to 70 per month
- a typical interception requires firing several interceptors
- even if Trump agreed to sell all of production to Ukraine, it would not suffice
Fortunately, Ukraine did not sit idle. It started mass producing medium-range drones which reach the typical launch sites of Iskander SRBMs. Lacking a way to defend, Ukraine will 95% likely attempt to take out the launchers, while looking for a way to disrupt Russian production with long range strikes at factories.
Missile defense is an extremely expensive way of fighting which can only accomplish the goal of buying time. With the reserves the US had built up, it could have been sustained. Not any more.
Sadly, we will be reading headlines about Russian missiles causing great damage in Ukraine, with an increasing frequency. We’ll also be reading about drones that semi-autonomously hunt for missile launchers, about Russians attempting to develop a longer-range Iskander, and hopefully about some critical factories blowing up really soon.
I mean… you don’t know if you don’t ask I guess. 😮💨
*sends missiles to Iran*
You didn’t say thank you.
