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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 21st, 2024

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  • You are missing my point. Fighting or war for that matter is not a binary state. It’s a process of escalating steps.

    At the start of the invasion Russia thought they would simply roll down the road to Kyiv and crush the Ukrainian army on the way. This led to ridiculous situation such as that large tank column being shot to pieces and farmers capturing military equipment.

    After that Russias tactic changed to i.e. targeting civilian infrastructure or war crimes like those in Bucha in an attempt to break the resolve of the Ukrainian citizens which obviously didn’t work so they escalated further.

    I’d argue at the end of this ladder is a Russian nuclear attack. Do I think that’s likely? No, not at all because breaking the nuclear taboo the negative consequences far outweigh the possible gains.

    My concern is that as Ukraine is climbing their own escalatory ladder this might lead to actions which start blurring the lines between fighting the Russian military and fighting civilians.