The change in Hungary’s government could help unlock €90bn for Ukraine and give a “new push” for it to join the European Union, the bloc’s expansion chief said Tuesday. Marta Kos, speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, described the Hungarian election on Sunday – which saw long-ruling nationalist prime minister Viktor Orbán defeated – as a “big win for Europe.”
“I expect, personally, that this will have a positive effect on the accession process,” Kos said. She also said it would help unlock a major loan needed to prop up Ukraine’s budget. Orban had an effective veto on the funds, angering other EU leaders. He had tied the veto to a dispute with Ukraine over a damaged pipeline carrying Russian oil.
Setting aside that this is largely wartime propaganda horseshit - both militaries are relying on conscripts and mercenaries, both are heavily invested in cheap long-range drone artillery, both are saturated in “Victory is just around the corner” propaganda which has degraded support for their civilian leadership - Russia has 5x the population of Ukraine. If this really is just a Bodies-In-Spaces conflict, the Russians can drown Ukraine in their own blood over a long enough timeline. Ukrainians still need someone to fire those bombs and bullets, ideally before Kiev looks like Tehran.
But then nobody is “winning” this war in a material sense. Putin is shedding what political allies he has as the war drags on - Romania, Hungary, Turkiye, Syria. Zelensky is fully fucked the next time Ukrainians bother to have a domestic vote. Both of their economies have tanked, with further economic pressures coming from the conflict with Iran and the climate change threat.
The issue isn’t whether one runs out first. It’s how long the political leadership can drag this forward before someone pops them and brokers a settlement that ends the bleeding. Netanyahu is in a similar position in Israel, with endless war being the only excuse he has to stay in office. And domestic revolt might be what brings all these governments down long before the actual wars are ended.
Sure, but not in equal measures. Russia’s causalities has been acknowledge by both sides to be significantly higher than Ukraine’s, and that was when Russia still had its Soviet stockpile now largely exhausted. Ukraine is getting resupplied by the west. Russia is getting resupplied by…North Korea?
Ukraine is much more than simply Zelensky. Euromaidan had nothing to do with Zelensky. I’m not aware of any groundswell of support of the Ukrainian people for capitulation to being conquered by Russia. I would think this would still mean a pro-Ukrainian anti-Russian president after Zelensky is out of office.
I agree, but Ukraine still has access to global markets for sales, and its new defense industries appear to be the hot item for global customers. Russia, which traditionally had a pretty good income from its defense industries has been wiped out with a multiprong situation of lack of manufacturing capacity to support its domestic weapons consumption while still providing units for export to derive income, and the poor performance of Russian systems on the battlefield make for a bad sales argument. If anything, China is poised to take over the space of defense industry that runs counter to the traditional western suppliers.
With Russia that leadership is one man, Putin. I would imagine as soon as he’s gone the will to fight the war evaporates with him. With Ukraine, I’m not aware of any pro-Russian candidate that show any sign of a significant lead that would suggest pro-Russians take power in Ukraine.