Everyone’s watching oil. That’s the mistake. With Hormuz closed, the real shock is hitting fertilizer, food, and supply chains. This isn’t just an energy crisis. It’s the early stage of a global food breakdown.
It’s not gonna be that long. The planting season is happening right now, and we’ll see the effects of that by summer and fall. And if there’s still shortage by next planting season, then we’re entering a structural shortage. The LNG plants are going to take years to repair, so this isn’t a blip as you put it.
And you’re right that some regions like the west overproduce and throw out food. Here, it will be possible to be less wasteful if the governments step in. However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.
Which means the planting supplies were lined up months ago. This will be a next-year thing if it cannot be corrected for in time.
The LNG plants are going to take years to repair
One section of one country’s exports in a global economy. And that’s ignoring the fact that the Straight isn’t shut down for everyone. The IRGC is negotiating passage for a bunch of unaligned states. Pakistan is going to get their fertilizer. China and Russia will get their supplies. Italy and Spain will be fine. It’s the US-Israel block that’s in trouble. And given how much fertilizer the US produces domestically, not even that much trouble.
However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.
The biggest threat to developing countries is western intervention. The famines happening along the Horn of Africa are the direct result of US, Israeli, and Qatari backed military interventions.
No, nitrogen wasn’t lined up. This is a widely reported problem. It’s not a type of fertilizer that gets stored. And it’s not one section of one country, it’s majority of Gulf states at this point which accounts for roughly 20% of global supply. The issue isn’t even passage at this point, it’s that production has been shut down.
It’s not gonna be that long. The planting season is happening right now, and we’ll see the effects of that by summer and fall. And if there’s still shortage by next planting season, then we’re entering a structural shortage. The LNG plants are going to take years to repair, so this isn’t a blip as you put it.
And you’re right that some regions like the west overproduce and throw out food. Here, it will be possible to be less wasteful if the governments step in. However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.
Which means the planting supplies were lined up months ago. This will be a next-year thing if it cannot be corrected for in time.
One section of one country’s exports in a global economy. And that’s ignoring the fact that the Straight isn’t shut down for everyone. The IRGC is negotiating passage for a bunch of unaligned states. Pakistan is going to get their fertilizer. China and Russia will get their supplies. Italy and Spain will be fine. It’s the US-Israel block that’s in trouble. And given how much fertilizer the US produces domestically, not even that much trouble.
The biggest threat to developing countries is western intervention. The famines happening along the Horn of Africa are the direct result of US, Israeli, and Qatari backed military interventions.
No, nitrogen wasn’t lined up. This is a widely reported problem. It’s not a type of fertilizer that gets stored. And it’s not one section of one country, it’s majority of Gulf states at this point which accounts for roughly 20% of global supply. The issue isn’t even passage at this point, it’s that production has been shut down.
Meanwhile, US farmers are already seeing fertilizer shortages and fuel prices going up. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/23/business/fertilizer-prices-iran-war-farmers
Western interventions are a whole separate problem for developing countries. That doesn’t detract from food production issues in any way.