Taiwan will scuttle their microchip fabs before letting China take over. Unless China have infiltrated and taken over the fabs and secured them from destruction, there’s far less economic value in invading Taiwan.
Chinas chip fabrication is advancing quickly. So assuming Taiwan remains strong and doesn’t get infiltrated, we won’t see an invasion until China is confident it doesn’t need Taiwanese chips for its own technology. Then, it’ll just be about politics and having more of the coast line and trade routes secured, not the fabs.
I reckon there’s at least a few more years before they will take Taiwan by force. Time for international relationships to change for the better…
So you’re telling me that China can stop US defence production by doing this one little trick? 🤔
Unlike for consumer applications, military systems don’t need cutting edge 2nm processes. Most military systems use 28nm - 90nm processes, which are more reliable, and which the US can comfortably supply domestically.
Most military systems use 28nm - 90nm processes, which are more reliable, and which the US can comfortably supply domestically.
Not included: the rare-earth minerals, which are a market almost entirely cornered by the same China. And facilities to process those same rare earth minerals, which are impossible to simply build overnight.
Original comment was talking about China attacking Taiwan to suffocate the US from the supply of chips for its military. China can unilaterally choke the US of rare earths without invading Taiwan
Interesting. Didn’t think of the military applications. I think both countries care about cutting edge technology markets in general, and not creating economic chaos by shutting down TSMC. But once TSMC in Taiwan itself is no longer essential, all bets are off. Given both US and China want to get away from relying on TSMC, it’s only a matter of time.
With the US currently only caring about money and power, all interest in Taiwan’s defence will evaporate. I hope for Taiwan’s sake politics change before that day comes.
Micron is a US company, but most R&D is done in Taiwan. As long as the US depends on Taiwan education pipeline and propensity for following SOP to the T for producing chips, the Arizona fabs aren’t a deal-breaker wrt Silicon Shield.
True, good points.
The talent will still be there. And the US will lose their supply of chips that make them what they are today. The issue was that the people would just leave and come to the US if they invaded. But now that America is a dictatorship what would be the point? They are screwed either way so now they will probably just make good chips for China.
Taiwan will scuttle their microchip fabs before letting China take over. Unless China have infiltrated and taken over the fabs and secured them from destruction, there’s far less economic value in invading Taiwan.
It looks like China is only a couple years away from building completely in-country fabs competitive with Taiwan. If that’s the case, then Taiwan using the economic value of their microchip fabs as a defense may very soon come to an end.
The biggest defense for Taiwan is the fact that it’s an island. I don’t thing that’s going to change any time soon.
Ukraine’s Sea Baby drones have been remarkably effective in the Black Sea. I don’t see why they wouldn’t be effective in the Taiwan Straight and I feel like Taiwan has the capability of mass producing similar drone boats.
Yes China has massive troop counts, but it doesn’t amount to much if those numbers can’t get across the Strait.
The US has the off switch for all their chip manufacturing
Wait, illegally invading countries for profit sets a precedent and destabilizes the whole global political order?!
shockedpikachu.gif
This is going to be amazingly stupid (Taiwan’s air defense is no joke). I hope they have the fortitude to retreat if it fails like bay of pigs instead of persisting aimlessly for 3+ years out of shame like monkey putin.
Hopefully they torch the place and destroy all the factories. Then China can have a burning lump of coal in the ocean.
Yayyyy calls for war crimes again /s
War crimes? “They” in that comment is Taiwan, denying China their resources.
Fair
Hey, those aren’t Chinas resources! /s
Maduro had been cooperating with the Chinese military quite a bit before being deposed. Venezuela is about 1000 miles from the Panama Canal. If the US has to respond to a Taiwan invasion we definitely dont want any problems with the Canal. Also, preventing Venezuelan oil from reaching China is likely a strategic reason for the invasion. Defense analyst and Marines veteran Ryan Macbeth mentioned it in a recent video and I havent heard it anywhere else but it makes sense. Not to excuse the actions against Maduro and especially the timing of it, but it’s not inconceivable that the Biden admin was considering similar moves.
Macbeth’s video: https://youtu.be/F9dHm4b6Klg
Note that Ryan MacBeth has also said that it would be impossible for Israel to do airstrikes on Iran.
That guy often speaks authoritatively about things he doesn’t know anything about.
He’s absolutely certain that China is going to invade Taiwan. China doesn’t currently landing ships and is putting a lot of money into the Belt and Roads initiative to establish land trade routes.
That’s what we call a clue!
The US defense analysis on China invading Taiwan states that it would likely result in a stalemate. Also it says the US should spend billions upon billions of dollars on Lockheed Martin missiles.
That’s what we call a clue!
The reality is while China does a lot of saber rattling over Taiwan, they likely don’t actually have the capability to take the island. Yes if you put troop counts on a spreadsheet it may look like China could take Taiwan at any time they please. But then when you consider that Taiwan is an island, and the troop counts engaged in the battle would be limited to the number they could supply across the Taiwan Straight (which would likely be contested by drone boats which have been very effective in the Black Sea) and the fact that amphibious landings are actually really hard to pull off (especially if you’re attempting to do it with appropriated civilian RORO cargo ships) the whole thing starts sounding very stupid. Of course everything is dependent on how willing the Taiwanese are in fighting off China. And as we’ve seen with Russia, just because an invasion plan is stupid it doesn’t necessarily mean an authoritarian disconnected from reality won’t try it.
But anyways, take the things Ryan MacBeth says with a big grain of salt. Defense analysts are often heavily influenced by the Military Industrial Complex, and they’ll tend to say China is going to invade Taiwan tomorrow unless many billions of dollars worth of missiles made by Lockheed Martin are procured.
Americans are always susceptible to any version of a story that indicates they aren’t complicit in wars for oil when they vote for politicians that bring down the price of gas. Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria all have oil. Sure there could be reasons other than oil for attacking these countries, but that’s a hell of a coincidence, and Trump is straight up saying that he wants Venezuela’s oil.
That’s what we call a clue!
“Look, it’s wrong to rob people, but on the other hand, they had money we needed to buy stuff with, so when you think about it, this was actually a rational and sly move on our part.”
Oceania was at war with Eurasia; therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia.
Smart move…
