• 3 Posts
  • 178 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 21st, 2023

help-circle

  • Agreed. The disdain for this technology, for me, is the working conditions, the environmental, the data centers imposed on neighbors, the mass theft of creative pursuits; but much of that could be alleviated if the means of production or the gains of profit were justly distributed. We all know this tech, as it is today, will be wielded by people who seem deeply disconnected from the lived experience of every day people. It’s all the bad things + it’s unfair. Why do they get to steal, on a level of theft we’ve never seen before, and sell it back to us while dotting the world in engines of local decay? I feel like the anger is justified, and the bewilderment of those in power is willful ignorance.

    I want to note that, when asked to experts and a range of AI models about how to solve for AGI’s disruption, they point to socialist policies at every angle. See https://institute.deepmind.com/


  • I watch a streamer who game devs without AI because I appreciate watching him discuss his thought process & learning more about how I could write it manually. For context, I’m a game designer who knows some code, not an engineer. There’s real concern around skill atrophy without people doing some of these more manual ways of doing things.

    My point about WPM is moreso about how the scale impacts velocity. I do think the speed impacts the old adage about software & pregnancy.

    • How long does it take a pregnant person to deliver a baby? Roughly 9 months.
    • How long does it take 2 people? …Roughly 9 months.

    There was a quality of software development where work takes the time needed, and sometimes throwing more bodies at something wouldn’t alter the time. A good engineer could maybe shave some time off, or the patterns they used were more resilient or production ready on the first pass. Now, that engineer could genuinely deliver that feature much faster.

    Here’s another trap I forgot to mention: our human read speed is always faster than our write. We may write up to 330 wpm, but your read speed is 400-1000 wpm. AI read speed is like 11m / wpm. The gap between our write v. read suggests it’s faster to describe a plan, read what the AI wrote & triage it, rather than the alternative.

    • Case 1: Engineer is capped at 300 wpm write
    • Case 2: Engineer writes a plan at 300 wpm, AI writes a bulk at 6k wpm, then humam reviews at ~800 wpm

    I mention John Henry because in the story Henry wins but dies in the process. Going fast is not the only goal, but the scale of the velocity change happening is really difficult to overcome mechanically on paper.

    Finally, to be clear, I say this stuff as a bitter pill I don’t want to swallow either. :/ I have my own emotional qualms with the whole situation. There’s big business risks around becoming captured markets & beholden to token costs. I think part of the AI acceleration is about creating that dynamic, and it greatly concerns me.


  • If you don’t work in tech or software development, it’ll be very hard for you to understand what this tech is doing within that space.

    As a game developer who has worked in professional environments for about 15 years, I can say this is the most dramatic shift in working patterns in my own lifetime. A lot of it has to do with the mechanics, some of which are physical limitations. Humans can type around 300 wpm, and maybe you can stretch that with an integrated environment that has some intelligence around auto complete and so on. However, AI can write at 6000 wpm. This is a modern John Henry problem: even the best programmer could not out write the AI, and I think the best programmer partnered with an AI will always beat the best programmer without it. In all honesty, humans make tons of mistakes, and programming has many patterns that reappear. I’m not sure if the human+keyboard is the best interface to write code. Likewise, an agent without clear context is somewhat worthless & will generate poorly architected projects.

    I don’t think AI’s assault on software development translates to all industries. Agriculture may use AI to inform how they do things, and eventually, machines could then take that knowledge and run the farm for you. The reality is that’s coming, but maybe 20 years or something. It’s not today, not tomorrow, and not for a while.

    Other industries have greater risk profiles compared to game development. If a game is programmed poorly, so what? If a medical app is programmed poorly, someone could die. Legal & financial apps programmed by AI have meaningful risk profiles as well. Sure, AI will impact them, but it must be slower due to the considerations at hand.

    In December of 2025, I would have said an AI bubble is going to pop. Now, I’m really not so sure. It’s upending how I’m used to working, and I struggle predicting the future. A few years ago, I would say I had a good sense of how to position myself & my career for a long term plan. Now, colleagues of mine with more tenure than me say, “I can’t predict what’s next.” This is pervasive once AI tools enter your workflow. It really is magic at times, talking to a machine & watching a game come into existence.

    This is buttressed by people showing me memes of ChatGPT screwing up the count of R’s in strawberry & other silly memes. The reality is the consumer models are different than the business models, and integrated agents (ones with access to a scripting environment) can be very powerful compared to a chatbot. It’s like comparing an e-bike to a car: they each get you somewhere faster than walking, but the scale of capabilities changes quite a bit.

    AI will need to find new patterns outside of LLMs in order to actually create something like AGI. LLMs are a mechanical process, a regression towards the mean at scale, but its still very powerful. You could write code on punch cards, or in a language with a compiler. AI feels like it is a big step, in that way.

    For my own area, my hopeful self wants to believe that this will enable new voices & projects to exist that would have required significant funding or hard, multi-disciplinary skills prior, or a combination of them. You can hack an unbelievable amount of the game dev process for what’s basically $100/mn, compared to what would have been a burn rate of +$100k/mn for a small dev team. That is transformational.

    At the same time, my pessimistic self sees things like arcade.gov, which is a fucking travesty & embarassment to the medium, clearly vibe coded by some nepo-baby with connections. The Skyrim IKEA shelf meme mod, while funny, is a marketing stunt. More of these sort of projects are coming, where the game is a vehicle for something else (a product, a brand, a person). We had Sneak King & Cool Spot, but I mean the scale. I think those sort of projects will be normalized, or at the least, many more will exist than today. If you look up AI disclosures on steam, it’s turning into a hockey stick.

    It feels like Pandora’s box has been opened. I don’t think it’s all smoke & mirrors. It will not impact all industries equally. It won’t fix humans being poorly intended or malicious actors seeking power & wealth. In many ways, they benefit the most (giving capital more access to creativity). It’s built on the largest scale theft of public good for profit. To me, that’s wrong, and the people/masses should be getting financial returns, collectively & universally, in exchange for what was stolen.


  • I feel like their point was that the gains of technology were not distributed fairly, which is largely the concern today. It’s not “technology is bad”, or “technology make bad thing”; rather, “the owners of the machine undercut our labor, and we lose our jobs”, which I think was true. In the modern world, there are likely less tailors, as a percentage of the working population, certainly in first world countries. Sweatshops still exist, and it’s people’s labor competing against a production line, in terms of ROI for a business.

    I get the sense we all know AI isn’t going to bring about a uptopia for all people, because the economic systems don’t incentivize that. There’s some hypothetical world where this sort of technological advance could benefit all people, but it’s not the one we live in. That’s a reality & major problem for the technology (among other issues).

    I certainly think the cost of labor for tech development is going to drop significantly due to the market pressures; look at all the tech layoffs. At the same time, the upside is these tools make certain projects accessible & possible, because prior, would have needed significant funding, amazing solo skills, etc. There’s new opportunities available, but it’ll come at the cost of cratering tech position compensation & job security.

    I don’t know anyone in my field right now who feels safe (game dev), and I have many talented friends out of work.



  • Acts 4:32

    32 All the believers were one in heart and mind. No one claimed that any of their possessions was their own, but they shared everything they had. 33 With great power the apostles continued to testify to the resurrection of the Lord Jesus. And God’s grace was so powerfully at work in them all 34 that there were no needy persons among them. For from time to time those who owned land or houses sold them, brought the money from the sales 35 and put it at the apostles’ feet, and it was distributed to anyone who had need.

    Matthew 25:31, starting from 37

    37 “Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? 38 When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you? 39 When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?’ 40 “The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’”

    I think you need to read your Bible, Jesusaurus.









  • I think it makes sense as temp assets in my field (video games), but ideally, you get a real artist rather than use AI. Temp can help visualize the intent, but a real artist will always out perform a machine on creativity, style, etc. I’ve used it for image quality upscaling—I don’t know how to do this on my own, but I guess I could learn.

    There’s likely other cases that are “visual” gen AI but maybe medical (pattern recognition?) or gap filling for something like architecture (like first pass treatments). I’m completely guessing there.

    The cost to generate an AI image is something like 60 ml of water (shot glass?) or 1kWh (like watching 2 HD movies via stream).

    Sure, yes, at scale, this stuff is bad. I would say the worst element is corporate profit of public goods: these machines were made with mass theft, and therefore, In my opinion, should be nationalized or universalized. In this reality, that is basically a joke.

    At an individual level, and a personal level, I know driving my car is bad, especially if it runs on gas. Running ACs in the summer is also bad. Leaving the water running while shaving is bad. So is a myriad of many things I do. AI use is completely optional, but it’s not an automatic marker of anyone’s moral standing, at least not more than the other cases I mentioned. You can also offset these costs as a way to be more morally just.

    For me:

    • Use for temp art
    • Hire a real human
    • Offset as best you can.

    One of my favorite shows is the Good Place because it highlights how impossible it is to live a perfectly good, moral life in the modern world. I think ascetics who aren’t using the internet or posting on social media are probably closest. I’m sure as hell not.


  • The reason we’re in trouble is because over seventy-four percent of federal spending is on autopilot

    The 74% is true, but it’s a smokescreen for other issues, namely, a majority of federal income is in personal tax. We’ve neutered our corporate tax income to a fraction of personal. When this is combined with the richest people dodging tax, you have the public paying while the rich continue to steal money for themselves.