Roughly 1/3 of Senate seats are up for re-election in November. Democrats are optimistic about their chances of winning control of the House, but their math in the Senate is tougher. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats hold 47 seats, so they must pick up four seats to win a majority. They will have to win more conservative states to win a majority.

The seats held by GOP Senator Susan Collins in Maine, a state Trump has lost in each of his three runs, and retiring Senator Thom Tillis in North Carolina, which Trump won by only about 3 points last November, are viewed as Democrats’ best pickup opportunities.

Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek the Senate “seems more likely to remain in Republican hands than not.”

“Democrats have good pickup opportunities in NC and ME—and perhaps an outside chance in Ohio. Even so, a very good election night for Democrats in the upper chamber would only bring the Senate to 50-50, with a Republican VP serving as the tie-breaker,” he said.

  • scops@reddthat.com
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    2 hours ago

    Former NC Governor Roy Cooper is running for Thillis’ seat. He was pretty well respected for getting us through Covid and being a reasonable voice against a hostile state legislature. I hope his popularity and general public sentiment against this administration are enough to win the seat

  • ClownStatue@piefed.social
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    6 hours ago

    If Maine gets rid of Collins, I’ll be so surprised. Happy, but surprised. I couldn’t believe she won reelection after showing how clueless she was about Trump’s “learning his lesson.”

    • santa@sh.itjust.works
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      2 hours ago

      Didn’t Collins even say she would only do two-terms, too? Must’ve been the lining of her pocketbook that swayed her… Who would’ve thunk? /s

    • timbuck2themoon@sh.itjust.works
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      6 hours ago

      She wasn’t clueless. She just knows what to say and her same dumb voters act like she’s some kind of independent and vote for her again and again.

  • dhork@lemmy.world
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    8 hours ago

    Even so, a very good election night for Democrats in the upper chamber would only bring the Senate to 50-50, with a Republican VP serving as the tie-breaker,” he said.

    If I were writing the script, I would have the Democrats win that 50/50 split in the Senate, then have the President eat his final cheeseburger. Then, Schumer will invoke the “McConnell” doctrine to sit on the VP appointment and not bring it to a vote at all. We lived without a SC Justice for nearly a year, and they are much more important than the VP.

      • dhork@lemmy.world
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        2 hours ago

        If God issues His Ultimate Recall vote on Trump, Vance immediately becomes President, and the office of the VP becomes vacant.

        To fill it, President Vance would need to nominate someone, who would have to be approved by both the House and Senate.

        But McConnell started a precedent that says that Congress can keep the position vacant by simply refusing to hold the vote.

        • santa@sh.itjust.works
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          1 hour ago

          Recall on Trump? In what scenario would this happen?

          The McConnell rule isn’t a rule or a precedent, but I agree using their game to screw them back.

          McConnell would just use whatever rule or precedent he set then change it to work in his favor any time it became an issue. That’s not how rules or precedents work and also it was all manufactured to meet their needs and screw anyone else into capturing power. The day Mitch kicks it will be a day for fireworks and celebrations.

          It would be great if politics were used to make people’s lives better in these failed United States, instead of enriching their pocketbooks while we look for scraps amongst the rapid dogs of high society.

          • dhork@lemmy.world
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            1 hour ago

            Recall on Trump? In what scenario would this happen?

            God has the final word on Donald Trump. Someday, when he eats his last cheeseburger.

    • aramis87@fedia.io
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      7 hours ago

      Unfortunately, you know Schumer will fold, just like he did with the shutdown this fall, just like he does every time. We need to get rid of Schumer, get someone in there who’s not afraid of punching back.

  • JohnnyFlapHoleSeed@lemmy.world
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    8 hours ago

    Well, if they don’t win, voters will just have to act through an armed insurrection, since that’s totally acceptable thanks to the president set by Trump