“It wasn’t because Biden voters shifted to Trump—but because so many of them stayed home.”
We must not repeat this same mistake again. Remember to always vote in every election and consider volunteering to knock on doors. It can make a difference. There are elections that are decided with just a small number of votes.
“This evidence is detrimental to my argument so I’m going to ignore it.”
This isn’t a plea not to vote. The issue is, like Trumps base, the number of people who will already vote “their side” is pretty constant.
It’s the capacity to lure new voters outside of their houses. Inspiring the energy to give a shit beyond their front door that defines it. Kamala didn’t do that.
Here, we’re pretty much preaching to the choir. I’m not the one you need to yell at or convince.
One things was clearly rooted in evidence, the reduced participation on voting.
I feel like the rest might have been a bit more Shakey ground.
In 2020, the working poor were largely not going into jobs and also had easiest access to voting. They were both easiest to vote and everyone was pissed that the pandemic sucked, so they were able to and motivated to vote.
The working poor put lives on the line going to work at McDonald’s and hospitals, then when they asked for living wages and sane schedules, they were unskilled labor again.
What’s fascinating is data on vote by mail. You would think it would be near to 100%. It’s not.
Sitting on your sofa eating chips, drinking a beer, laptop open to look up candidates, in yoga pants or even no pants. People still can’t manage to find the energy. You can even, in many cases, mail letters from your own mailbox. Minimal energy required. And yet.
Per Stanford, the participation difference was “modest”.
https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/how-does-vote-mail-change-american-elections
Politifact cites a mere 3.3-15.5% increase in turnout with all mail in voting, and it doesn’t favor either party.
https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/may/18/does-voting-mail-lead-higher-turnout-red-blue-and-/
Only 4 states had increased turnout between 2020 and 2024.
https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_elections
West coast, NV, HI, CO, DC, VT, UT are vote by mail states.
My point is, voters clearly need to believe, fear, or be really excited to bother.
That’s how inspiring the candidates are.