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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • the highest turnout of registered voters and young voters in American history.

    This is one of the problems with how we’ve pushed the messages like “rock the vote”, that you should vote, no matter what, or you’re being a bad citizen.

    If you can’t be bothered to actually try to be informed, then you shouldn’t feel pressure to vote. Sure, you should be allowed to vote no matter what, but no one should be pressuring you to vote even with lack of interest.

    We should be emphasizing you should get to know the candidates up and down the ballot, not just getting your mark on a ballot.







  • Still based on taxes, they know how to make it work.

    The basic logistics or the least of the open questions.

    If every one gets 2k a month, how do prices react? Social security participants are only a subset of participants in the economy.

    If everyone’s compensation is equal, guaranteed, and sufficient assuming prices didn’t just screw up, can you still get people doing work like sanitation? Social security is from a mindset that no productive prior is no longer required. It pays more to someone that made 100k a year than someone that made 50k a year, so your get proportional to what you put in.




  • You can’t just do a "study’ of UBI. Every single study attempt I’ve seen looks like: -They have funding from something or another, they do not model the taxation half at all -They end up means testing because they can’t model taxation, so they fixate on those in need exclusively. -They tend to last maybe a year or two. The beneficiaries know this is a limited term benefit and need to make the most of it. -They do not target everyone, so the local market won’t even notice the difference in base earning power. You still have lots of poor people excluded from the study. -They did not just force people into the program, participants had to actively seek out participation.

    What the experiments have repeatedly proven is that welfare can work to give motivated poor people a needed reprieve to get their feet on solid ground, which we already knew. We haven’t had an actual “study” of real UBI, just studies on welfare that they say is about UBI. About the only difference from actual welfare programs is that the participants are not audited to try to make sure the benefit shuts off the second they get a job. Which may be a good indicator at least that auditing the benefits could stand to be more lax.

    UBI might work, but to date we haven’t actually tried it in any useful way. We have universal income in some places, but it’s generally well short of even basic.


  • We have voluntary programs, they are called charities and they gave so little participation that they have to pick and choose their battles and ensure they spend money on those that care.

    Also hard to know if the charity is efficient, competent, and free of corruption.

    UBI needs universal participations on contributor and recipient to maybe work. Hard to say even then since the nature of it resists meaningful experiments, and the few actual programs tend to fall well short of even “basic” income.




  • Not sure. She was politically inactive until MAGA/QAnon triggered her to become an active outsider. Trump’s first term was relatively milquetoast economically. He did do China trade war stuff, but overall mild. He didn’t impose so many tariffs and largely left the resident immigrants alone, fixated on the border instead. To the extent she might have been dissatisfied, she was on the outside and the blaming if deep state and for the last half of the term, obstructionist Democrat rhetoric worked.

    Then she became an insider, but an insider to an opposition party for the Biden presidency. Their blaming Biden and performative opposition still worked even on the inside.

    Now she is on the inside of a party that has all the control she imagined and is seeing the administration double down on the most destructive policies and seeing first hand her party pretty much doing nothing except letting Trump unilaterally do whatever.

    I think she was a naive gullible true believer and is perhaps finding out that no one actually is sincerely with her in the power structure.

    She’s a fool and racist, but I think this is sincere.





  • I think that unlike some others in the maga leadership, she was a true believer. She believed in all the most dubious deep state conspiracy theories. She thought this movement was about purging deep state corruption, and replacing it with some more meritocratic system. A big old dose of racism in there but with her rationalizing it with convenient conspiracy theories.

    Now she’s faced with more blatant objective evidence of conspiracies. So she gets turned a bit by the betrayal.

    Over a long enough time span, I think MTG is doomed to always, eventually turn against whomever is ostensibly “in charge”. She’ll go for conspiracy theories and of course the people in charge are to blame.