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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • I’m not sure where you got the idea they “acknowledged” this as their reason. It’s a wholly unsupported theory based on nothing but some random opinion in the NYT (although I do love the notion that this opinion somehow “got lost amid the excitement” as opposed to simply being uninteresting).

    It doesn’t even make sense. You don’t need an opposition filibuster unless the majority of the party is “fringe” (straining the meaning of fringe). There are plenty of other ways to bury a bill or – worst case – excuse a couple defectors.












    1. The article argues campaigning with Liz Cheney seems to have no effect. Calling it an “electoral fiasco,” especially in the headline, clearly implies that it was detrimental in a significant way.
    2. The evidence that the rallies were ineffective is comparing Harris’s results against Biden’s. This is terrible analysis. This should be at least a difference-in-difference comparison (the difference in the change vs Biden, using similar counties that were/weren’t visited). Useful evidence that their analysis actually works would be applying it to strategies they think were positive, and showing the relative improvement there.




  • Based on what I know of Imposter Syndrome and the Dunning-Kruger effect, it seems you’re at your most competent when you feel like you’re at your least.

    I’m not sure how you come to that conclusion, even with the internet meme version of the Dunning-Kruger effect. In the meme version, the incompetent think they are most competent, but I don’t think it follows that the most competent would think they are least competent.

    I would summarize the actual Dunning-Kruger effect as: people tend to think they are a bit above average, and actual skill factors in only slightly. Worth emphasizing that these results are over groups of people, and individuals have extreme variation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

    Dunning-Kruger percentile chart

    Dunning-Kruger raw score chart