The Chinese government has made five demands on the United States, including the cancellation of its chip exports ban and sanctions, during US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s four-day China…
The US pays it’s bills. China defaulting devalues it’s currency, making payment necessary in dollars. The US has a hard limit on how much yuan it will exchange for dollars to prevent a run on the currency. China cannot get enough dollars to pay the bill, while the US is the one country in the world to which China can’t just say “lol no.” Assets will be forfeit or one sided deals favoring the US will come out of this. The devaluation of the primary currency of a major trade partner means their goods cost less and their interest increases
US economy would collapse overnight without China, thinking that US has some sort of upper hand here is the height of comedy. US doesn’t produce much of anything today, its industrial base is around 11% of its GDP, and there is no substitute for China which is central to most supply chains.
China needs buyers. If the US stopped buying from China, it would be the same situation in China. Their economies are so intertwined that a war between them, even just financially, would ruin both
China has plenty of buyers, that’s the whole point of BRI and BRICS. Literally all of the world constitutes China’s buyers with US being a small portion of that. China would be hurt by an economic war with US, but US would be completely devastated by it because US depends on essential products and commodities it can’t get anywhere else. Meanwhile, people thought Russia would be ruined economically once being cut out of western economic system and here we are with even IMF now projecting growth for their economy. Incidentally, trade between China and Russia has already jumped to over 200 billion if you want to see an example of China replacing US with a friendly trading partner.
I want to point out that the fraction of imports/exports between the USA and China is roughly symmetric (by monetary value). In 2022, about 16% of China’s exports were to the USA; in 2021, about 17% of the USA’s imports were from China.
That being said, you’re probably making a valid point about which items are flowing, not just the raw value of goods.
Also, I would think it’s generally easier for a producer to find new buyers of what it’s already producing, than for a buyer to find a new producer for what it needs.
Edit to add: If we look at the ratio “Exports/Imports”, we have about 0.3 for the USA with China, and we have about 3.3 for China with the USA.
I think the point has been lost. The US not dealing with Russia hasn’t impacted the US beyond fuel prices. The US not dealing with China would result in some commodities becoming more expensive and production being further moved out of China, at which point the price of commodities would come back down.
India wants to be the next China, and they hate China. That’s where most US technical and manufacturing has been moving.
You should take a look at the sheer amount of commodities US imports from China, these can’t be replaced overnight. Meanwhile, India is simply not able to do what China does. The whole talk of moving manufacturing to India comes from sheer ignorance of what it takes to do the kind of manufacturing China does. Companies are already giving up on India as the two links I gave in the other thread show.
I’ve seen graphs of the massive trade disparity between the US and China. If either side cut one off, there would be pressure to find replacement. It would be “cutting off the nose to spite the face.” So far the pressure to move to India has only really ramped up since the COVID pandemic. It takes a while to build factories and train workers
It won’t happen until there is a military clash between the two, which will end in respecting boundaries or WW3. China will fight to keep US industry from moving to a neighbor. If China wants to expand, they need capital.
Again, you can’t just magic industry into existence. It takes time to create it. India is not a replacement for China, and it has a long way to go before it can do what China does. Meanwhile, China has no problems expanding because it’s directly investing into countries in BRI and BRICS.
The US economy wouldn’t collapse without China, nor China without the US. They are so heavily intertwined economically that both countries avoid trouble with the other because the impact would be enormous.
China has manufacturing power. US has trade alliances and military power. Neither can overcome the other in simple terms.
If the US pulled out of China, the pressure on their allies to stop business with China would be the halting of sales of arms and support. Those F35’s require specific maintenance supplied by the US.
If China pulled out of the US, the pressure would be on US soil to bring prices of commodities down.
China is a cheap source of labor to the US, but so is India. Much of US tech support and manufacturing is moving to India anyhow because much of the educated population speaks English due to British colonialism. Over time, things would equalize and the new status quo would emerge. NEITHER country would cease to exist, and neither would acknowledge the growing pains.
US economy was in shock when a single ship got stuck in Suez Canal, that’s how fragile it is. If China cut US off, then most necessities of life would disappear overnight, and there wouldn’t be any readily available replacements US could source quickly. Meanwhile, China is far less dependent on US than the other way around. China doesn’t get anything essential from US, and trade imbalance massively favors China. China can absolutely survive without US.
US has no military power over most of Eurasia or Middle East at this point, and it’s not even able to compete with Russia militarily as it turns out. China’s industrial power absolutely dwarfs both US and Russia, so US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China. You don’t have to take it from me either, here’s Pentagon freaking out over this https://archive.ph/YOV9X
If China pulled out of the US, the pressure would be on US soil to bring prices of commodities down.
You can’t just make industry appear out of thin air in the real world. It takes years to build factories, train workers, and establish supply chains. You can’t just print money and make these things magically appear.
China is a cheap source of labor to the US, but so is India.
That’s wrong again. China is not a cheap source of labour, it’s a technological power with well ironed out supply chains and skilled workers. India isn’t anywhere close in terms of technological development. Here are just a couple of recent examples of that
You said it perfectly: the massive amounts of imports to the US from China are a driving force of China’s economy. The US has been in steady decline for two decades. China is on the rise because of their massive exports to the US and the EU. Without those, China tanks, same as the US. The US will consume, and China will produce. That is the stats quo.
US weapons are steamrolling the Russian army, without any US solders operating them. Ukraine is still gaining ground daily, on every front. Do you truly believe the US couldn’t roll through Russia the way Wagner did two weeks ago with only 25,000 troops? I said it earlier but I’ll say it again: Wagner is/was proud of the fact they used western arms and not Russian or Chinese. To say the US couldn’t take Russia is naive at best, downright false at worst.
China’s industrial power absolutely dwarfs both US and Russia, so US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China.
Your hypothetical disregards the existence of NATO and Indo-Pacific alliances. Article 5: An attack on one is an attack on all. War between China and the US would be China Russia and N Korea vs the world. Be serious here. Do you think China by itself, or China with it’s “big” 3 allies could take Australia and the south Pacific states, nearly all of Europe (including states like Poland who are foaming at the mouth to inflict suffering on Russia), India, Japan, S Korea, and DEFINITELY the Philippines and Taiwan. Let’s not forget the massive military base on Guam.
But let’s dig deeper: the US has the most aircraft carriers in world, the most veterans who have seen combat, the most ballistic missile subs, the largest air force, the most military bases, and the US has bases in Korea and Japan for exactly the situation you described. China currently has no capability to project it’s military onto US soil. They wouldn’t be able to cross the Pacific, whereas the US is already in Asia. China is not good to it’s neighbors, and many have historical grievances as well as ongoing territorial disputes (off the top of my head: India and Philippines). War between China and the US would be WW3, which both sides are actively avoiding. Don’t say things like “US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China” when you don’t seem to grasp that it would be China vs the entire planet, and the entire planet is better equipped and on their doorstep.
No, what has actually happened is that there are two world superpowers instead of one, each ruling their part of the globe, each dependant on the other to not drop the facade so they have an “enemy” to blame at home. To say either single country could take on the other is probably the worst argument you tried to make
Again, China can find new countries to export to, and that is literally the whole idea behind BRICS and BRI where China is actively investing into helping countries develop and then sell them their technology. If you look at the breakdown of Chinese exports, it’s pretty clear that US and EU aren’t the major market anymore. The risks are not symmetric. For China, it would be a pain, but wouldn’t be existential. For US and EU it would be a crisis.
US weapons are steamrolling the Russian army, without any US solders operating them.
You must be living in an alternate reality. All US weapons have failed miserably in Ukraine, and Ukraine has failed to gain any ground in over 4 weeks of their offensive. This is well documented all over western media. Just a couple of recent examples for you
Do you truly believe the US couldn’t roll through Russia the way Wagner did two weeks ago with only 25,000 troops?
No sane person believe that US could roll through Russia.
Wagner is/was proud of the fact they used western arms and not Russian or Chinese.
Wagner is a tiny portion of Russian military force, if you don’t even understand what role wagner plays what else is there to say really.
To say the US couldn’t take Russia is naive at best, downright false at worst.
You really gotta stop guzzling propaganda. Not a single person in US military shares this insane view with you. 😂
Your hypothetical disregards the existence of NATO and Indo-Pacific alliances. Article 5: An attack on one is an attack on all.
First of all, article 5 doesn’t say what you think it says. It says that countries have to provide support at their discretion which can be basically anything. Second, NATO is literally running out of ammunition right now and lacks the industrial base to make more.
This is just one example of why US has absolutely no hope of fighting Russia. I’m not even going to go into the fact that Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal and nuclear hypersonic weapons US has no defense against.
You should also read up on what US military planners say about a war with China. Here’s what the Pentagon had to say recently about it https://archive.ph/YOV9X
But let’s dig deeper: the US has the most aircraft carriers in world
Oh you mean obsolete boats that can be easily destroyed by modern hypersonic weapons US has no defence against?
No, what has actually happened is that there are two world superpowers instead of one, each ruling their part of the globe, each dependant on the other to not drop the facade so they have an “enemy” to blame at home. To say either single country could take on the other is probably the worst argument you tried to make
What’s actually happening is that US empire is crumbling, and the cost of keeping the grip on the empire is now exceeding the material returns US gets back from the colonies. This is leading to an economic collapse in US domestically that’s currently unfolding.
China doesn’t need to take on US directly, and it’s pretty clear that China’s plan is to just wait for US to keep losing power due to its internal contradictions. Time is on China’s side. However, if US did try to start a war with China, the consequences for US would be absolutely disastrous.
And you’ve finally exposed yourself as being utterly ignorant on the subject you’re attempting to debate. You keep on huffing copium there while you can, soon you’re going to have to grapple with the real world. Bye.
@ruck_feddit @yogthos doest the U.S. owe china almost a trillion as well?
The US pays it’s bills. China defaulting devalues it’s currency, making payment necessary in dollars. The US has a hard limit on how much yuan it will exchange for dollars to prevent a run on the currency. China cannot get enough dollars to pay the bill, while the US is the one country in the world to which China can’t just say “lol no.” Assets will be forfeit or one sided deals favoring the US will come out of this. The devaluation of the primary currency of a major trade partner means their goods cost less and their interest increases
US economy would collapse overnight without China, thinking that US has some sort of upper hand here is the height of comedy. US doesn’t produce much of anything today, its industrial base is around 11% of its GDP, and there is no substitute for China which is central to most supply chains.
China needs buyers. If the US stopped buying from China, it would be the same situation in China. Their economies are so intertwined that a war between them, even just financially, would ruin both
China has plenty of buyers, that’s the whole point of BRI and BRICS. Literally all of the world constitutes China’s buyers with US being a small portion of that. China would be hurt by an economic war with US, but US would be completely devastated by it because US depends on essential products and commodities it can’t get anywhere else. Meanwhile, people thought Russia would be ruined economically once being cut out of western economic system and here we are with even IMF now projecting growth for their economy. Incidentally, trade between China and Russia has already jumped to over 200 billion if you want to see an example of China replacing US with a friendly trading partner.
I want to point out that the fraction of imports/exports between the USA and China is roughly symmetric (by monetary value). In 2022, about 16% of China’s exports were to the USA; in 2021, about 17% of the USA’s imports were from China.
That being said, you’re probably making a valid point about which items are flowing, not just the raw value of goods.
Also, I would think it’s generally easier for a producer to find new buyers of what it’s already producing, than for a buyer to find a new producer for what it needs.
Edit to add: If we look at the ratio “Exports/Imports”, we have about 0.3 for the USA with China, and we have about 3.3 for China with the USA.
yup
I think the point has been lost. The US not dealing with Russia hasn’t impacted the US beyond fuel prices. The US not dealing with China would result in some commodities becoming more expensive and production being further moved out of China, at which point the price of commodities would come back down.
India wants to be the next China, and they hate China. That’s where most US technical and manufacturing has been moving.
You should take a look at the sheer amount of commodities US imports from China, these can’t be replaced overnight. Meanwhile, India is simply not able to do what China does. The whole talk of moving manufacturing to India comes from sheer ignorance of what it takes to do the kind of manufacturing China does. Companies are already giving up on India as the two links I gave in the other thread show.
I’ve seen graphs of the massive trade disparity between the US and China. If either side cut one off, there would be pressure to find replacement. It would be “cutting off the nose to spite the face.” So far the pressure to move to India has only really ramped up since the COVID pandemic. It takes a while to build factories and train workers
It won’t happen until there is a military clash between the two, which will end in respecting boundaries or WW3. China will fight to keep US industry from moving to a neighbor. If China wants to expand, they need capital.
Again, you can’t just magic industry into existence. It takes time to create it. India is not a replacement for China, and it has a long way to go before it can do what China does. Meanwhile, China has no problems expanding because it’s directly investing into countries in BRI and BRICS.
The US economy wouldn’t collapse without China, nor China without the US. They are so heavily intertwined economically that both countries avoid trouble with the other because the impact would be enormous.
China has manufacturing power. US has trade alliances and military power. Neither can overcome the other in simple terms.
If the US pulled out of China, the pressure on their allies to stop business with China would be the halting of sales of arms and support. Those F35’s require specific maintenance supplied by the US.
If China pulled out of the US, the pressure would be on US soil to bring prices of commodities down.
China is a cheap source of labor to the US, but so is India. Much of US tech support and manufacturing is moving to India anyhow because much of the educated population speaks English due to British colonialism. Over time, things would equalize and the new status quo would emerge. NEITHER country would cease to exist, and neither would acknowledge the growing pains.
US economy was in shock when a single ship got stuck in Suez Canal, that’s how fragile it is. If China cut US off, then most necessities of life would disappear overnight, and there wouldn’t be any readily available replacements US could source quickly. Meanwhile, China is far less dependent on US than the other way around. China doesn’t get anything essential from US, and trade imbalance massively favors China. China can absolutely survive without US.
US has no military power over most of Eurasia or Middle East at this point, and it’s not even able to compete with Russia militarily as it turns out. China’s industrial power absolutely dwarfs both US and Russia, so US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China. You don’t have to take it from me either, here’s Pentagon freaking out over this https://archive.ph/YOV9X
You can’t just make industry appear out of thin air in the real world. It takes years to build factories, train workers, and establish supply chains. You can’t just print money and make these things magically appear.
That’s wrong again. China is not a cheap source of labour, it’s a technological power with well ironed out supply chains and skilled workers. India isn’t anywhere close in terms of technological development. Here are just a couple of recent examples of that
US wouldn’t cease to exist, but it would have a massive economic crash and it would never recover to its current level of power.
You said it perfectly: the massive amounts of imports to the US from China are a driving force of China’s economy. The US has been in steady decline for two decades. China is on the rise because of their massive exports to the US and the EU. Without those, China tanks, same as the US. The US will consume, and China will produce. That is the stats quo.
US weapons are steamrolling the Russian army, without any US solders operating them. Ukraine is still gaining ground daily, on every front. Do you truly believe the US couldn’t roll through Russia the way Wagner did two weeks ago with only 25,000 troops? I said it earlier but I’ll say it again: Wagner is/was proud of the fact they used western arms and not Russian or Chinese. To say the US couldn’t take Russia is naive at best, downright false at worst.
Your hypothetical disregards the existence of NATO and Indo-Pacific alliances. Article 5: An attack on one is an attack on all. War between China and the US would be China Russia and N Korea vs the world. Be serious here. Do you think China by itself, or China with it’s “big” 3 allies could take Australia and the south Pacific states, nearly all of Europe (including states like Poland who are foaming at the mouth to inflict suffering on Russia), India, Japan, S Korea, and DEFINITELY the Philippines and Taiwan. Let’s not forget the massive military base on Guam.
But let’s dig deeper: the US has the most aircraft carriers in world, the most veterans who have seen combat, the most ballistic missile subs, the largest air force, the most military bases, and the US has bases in Korea and Japan for exactly the situation you described. China currently has no capability to project it’s military onto US soil. They wouldn’t be able to cross the Pacific, whereas the US is already in Asia. China is not good to it’s neighbors, and many have historical grievances as well as ongoing territorial disputes (off the top of my head: India and Philippines). War between China and the US would be WW3, which both sides are actively avoiding. Don’t say things like “US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China” when you don’t seem to grasp that it would be China vs the entire planet, and the entire planet is better equipped and on their doorstep.
No, what has actually happened is that there are two world superpowers instead of one, each ruling their part of the globe, each dependant on the other to not drop the facade so they have an “enemy” to blame at home. To say either single country could take on the other is probably the worst argument you tried to make
Again, China can find new countries to export to, and that is literally the whole idea behind BRICS and BRI where China is actively investing into helping countries develop and then sell them their technology. If you look at the breakdown of Chinese exports, it’s pretty clear that US and EU aren’t the major market anymore. The risks are not symmetric. For China, it would be a pain, but wouldn’t be existential. For US and EU it would be a crisis.
You must be living in an alternate reality. All US weapons have failed miserably in Ukraine, and Ukraine has failed to gain any ground in over 4 weeks of their offensive. This is well documented all over western media. Just a couple of recent examples for you
No sane person believe that US could roll through Russia.
Wagner is a tiny portion of Russian military force, if you don’t even understand what role wagner plays what else is there to say really.
You really gotta stop guzzling propaganda. Not a single person in US military shares this insane view with you. 😂
First of all, article 5 doesn’t say what you think it says. It says that countries have to provide support at their discretion which can be basically anything. Second, NATO is literally running out of ammunition right now and lacks the industrial base to make more.
US aims go from making 14,000 155mm shells each month to 20,000 by the spring and 40,000 by 2025. https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/12/05/army-plans-dramatic-ammo-production-boost-as-ukraine-drains-stocks/
Meanwhile, Russia was producing over a million shells a year long before the war started, it’s vastly more now
This is just one example of why US has absolutely no hope of fighting Russia. I’m not even going to go into the fact that Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal and nuclear hypersonic weapons US has no defense against.
You should also read up on what US military planners say about a war with China. Here’s what the Pentagon had to say recently about it https://archive.ph/YOV9X
Oh you mean obsolete boats that can be easily destroyed by modern hypersonic weapons US has no defence against?
I recommend trying engaging with reality https://asiatimes.com/2023/05/war-game-china-hypersonics-sink-us-carrier-every-time/
What’s actually happening is that US empire is crumbling, and the cost of keeping the grip on the empire is now exceeding the material returns US gets back from the colonies. This is leading to an economic collapse in US domestically that’s currently unfolding.
China doesn’t need to take on US directly, and it’s pretty clear that China’s plan is to just wait for US to keep losing power due to its internal contradictions. Time is on China’s side. However, if US did try to start a war with China, the consequences for US would be absolutely disastrous.
Removed by mod
And you’ve finally exposed yourself as being utterly ignorant on the subject you’re attempting to debate. You keep on huffing copium there while you can, soon you’re going to have to grapple with the real world. Bye.