That’s what I’m trying to explain to people. This gerrymandering is likely to backfire, especially in a bloodbath Midterms.
In Louisiana, they got rid of one Blue district, by spreading the votes across three Solid Red Districts, severely diluting them. The district may have gone away, but the votes are still there. Now there are a LOT more Dem votes in those three districts, during an election in which MAGA votes are likely to either flip to Dem, or not vote at all. It is very possible that they may just have taken away one district, only to flip three.
Not at all. People don’t understand a lot of the nuances of gerrymandering, and this sort of reliance on it often backfires, especially as a decade goes on.
The redistricting happens at the beginning of the decade, following the Census. As the decade progresses, many areas change, with some areas booming, others waning, and their original influence on the redistricting changes. For instance, a Red rural area may start to lean Blue as new housing developments around a new industry pop up, and by the end of the decade, that reliable Red district is now very Purple, maybe even fully Blue.
This unusual mid-decade redistricting happened based on 6 year old data, a period of extreme political upheaval. To expect that the political make-up is exactly the same as it was back then is expecting a LOT. Many districts are an unknown factor.
Consider this:
They got rid of one solid Red district, but diluted three solid Blue districts. This districts are probably 30% Blue now. Normally, that wouldn’t be enough to win the district, but we have been seeing elections in Trump districts that are showing enormous drops in support, sometimes by 30 points or more. If this redistricting has given Dems a 30% boost in a year on which MAGAs are down 20-30%, those previously solid districts become prime for flips. And that’s without even considering that the party make-up may already be far different than expected, because of time.
The thing to remember is that MAGAs always have a plan, but it’s always a bad plan. They only see what’s right in front of them, and they never look down the road, to the next several steps. In this case, they killed a Blue district, and that’s good enough. They have no idea they’ve endangered three districts. Maybe they won’t get all three, but if they flip even one, then their efforts will be a net negative, because now they have three MAGA Congressional reps who now have a significant number of hostile constituents they’ll have to deal with, whether they like it or not. They’ll screw this up, they always do.
Also just to further add on. The Republicans are basically drifting along by the Trump cult of personality, which if he dies has a solid chance of collapsing. Given how rough he is looking and the seeming exponential increase in his medical shit it’s probable he’ll be dead by the mid terms, hell he may be dead by the primaries.
Good point, it’s a classic Cult of Personality, which means there is no #2, and a whole lot of people who think they should be #2, and not one of them will look interesting to Trumpers. Once he croaks, the knives will come out, and the backstabbing will be glorious. Wear a poncho.
The only worry I have is that the cult will jump to Baron or something. Though I do think Donald basically got lucky with it and the whole thing may be impossible to keep going. Best case is that large elements of MAGA that joined due to COVID and whatnot go back to being inactive.
That’s what I’m trying to explain to people. This gerrymandering is likely to backfire, especially in a bloodbath Midterms.
In Louisiana, they got rid of one Blue district, by spreading the votes across three Solid Red Districts, severely diluting them. The district may have gone away, but the votes are still there. Now there are a LOT more Dem votes in those three districts, during an election in which MAGA votes are likely to either flip to Dem, or not vote at all. It is very possible that they may just have taken away one district, only to flip three.
Just sounds like desperate copium.
Not at all. People don’t understand a lot of the nuances of gerrymandering, and this sort of reliance on it often backfires, especially as a decade goes on.
The redistricting happens at the beginning of the decade, following the Census. As the decade progresses, many areas change, with some areas booming, others waning, and their original influence on the redistricting changes. For instance, a Red rural area may start to lean Blue as new housing developments around a new industry pop up, and by the end of the decade, that reliable Red district is now very Purple, maybe even fully Blue.
This unusual mid-decade redistricting happened based on 6 year old data, a period of extreme political upheaval. To expect that the political make-up is exactly the same as it was back then is expecting a LOT. Many districts are an unknown factor.
Consider this:
They got rid of one solid Red district, but diluted three solid Blue districts. This districts are probably 30% Blue now. Normally, that wouldn’t be enough to win the district, but we have been seeing elections in Trump districts that are showing enormous drops in support, sometimes by 30 points or more. If this redistricting has given Dems a 30% boost in a year on which MAGAs are down 20-30%, those previously solid districts become prime for flips. And that’s without even considering that the party make-up may already be far different than expected, because of time.
The thing to remember is that MAGAs always have a plan, but it’s always a bad plan. They only see what’s right in front of them, and they never look down the road, to the next several steps. In this case, they killed a Blue district, and that’s good enough. They have no idea they’ve endangered three districts. Maybe they won’t get all three, but if they flip even one, then their efforts will be a net negative, because now they have three MAGA Congressional reps who now have a significant number of hostile constituents they’ll have to deal with, whether they like it or not. They’ll screw this up, they always do.
Also just to further add on. The Republicans are basically drifting along by the Trump cult of personality, which if he dies has a solid chance of collapsing. Given how rough he is looking and the seeming exponential increase in his medical shit it’s probable he’ll be dead by the mid terms, hell he may be dead by the primaries.
Good point, it’s a classic Cult of Personality, which means there is no #2, and a whole lot of people who think they should be #2, and not one of them will look interesting to Trumpers. Once he croaks, the knives will come out, and the backstabbing will be glorious. Wear a poncho.
The only worry I have is that the cult will jump to Baron or something. Though I do think Donald basically got lucky with it and the whole thing may be impossible to keep going. Best case is that large elements of MAGA that joined due to COVID and whatnot go back to being inactive.
Trump is #1 and #2.