Your match is correct to get 100% of the districts, but a party only needs to get between 50 and 75% of the seats to have uncontested control of the legislative body, depending on their particular laws, meaning that above that threshold the rest are poorly represented, if at all. Hence, as little as 25% of the popular vote, even with only 2 parties. Yes, without perfect gerrymandering, you won’t reach those numbers, but minimums and maximums don’t care about sigmas.
Your match is correct to get 100% of the districts, but a party only needs to get between 50 and 75% of the seats to have uncontested control of the legislative body, depending on their particular laws, meaning that above that threshold the rest are poorly represented, if at all. Hence, as little as 25% of the popular vote, even with only 2 parties. Yes, without perfect gerrymandering, you won’t reach those numbers, but minimums and maximums don’t care about sigmas.