Democrat Chedrick Greene has won a special state Senate election in Michigan, NBC News projects, ensuring his party will keep control of the closely divided chamber.
Greene, a Marine veteran and firefighter, defeated Republican Jason Tunney, a former prosecutor, in the special election to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who resigned from the state Senate after she was elected to Congress in 2024.
Greene’s victory means Democrats will hold a 20-18 majority in the Senate. Democrats also control the governorship in Michigan, a key battleground state, while Republicans have a 58-52 edge in the state House.
Democrats have been over performing Harris 2024 by double digits in most special elections. This will probably carry over to some degree in the midterms, but don’t expect a 15+ point over performance. The political realignment of the Trump era has resulted in the most politically engaged voters moving to the Democrats, and the least engaged toward Republicans. This means that Democrats will over perform in smaller races and underperform in presidential elections. The midterms are between special elections and presidential elections in terms of turnout, so expect a muted blue wave. Party preference polling is averaging D+5 right now, so I’m guessing the midterms might be around D+8.