Speaking later, von der Leyen said she thought it would be possible to disburse the first tranche of the €45bn funding planned for 2026 in this quarter, meaning by the end of June. The first payment, she indicated, would fund Ukraine’s domestic drone production – “drones from Ukraine for Ukraine”.
IMHO, with this sum, Ukraine can finance enough drone production to saturate and overwhelm Russia’s air defense regularly, and regularly bomb industries which the Russian war effort relies on, with enough drones to disable them.
It is unlikely that Russia will stop producing drones and doing the same, but starting from this summer, it will take damage to strategically important places on a weekly basis, and might run out of money to finance things.
If one looks at polls from “levada.ru”, Putin’s popularity is already dropping at a rapid rate for some months. Hopefully this will accelerate.
The remaining question is: how exactly will the war end? Hopefully with negotiations, but other scenarios are possible. It could be economic crisis, strikes and protests in Russia. Or a coup. But it could also be escalation to weapons of mass destruction. The role of Ukraine’s allies should be to deter Russia from using that last option.
I’m wondering the same. What does it matter if his popularity drops? Wouldn’t it just continue until he is dead or there’s a wave of massive, violent strikes and protests — large enough for the ruling class to fear for their lives?
A drop in popularity would be a strong incentive to negotiate a solution, because they aren’t fools.
If propaganda is no longer working and critical thresholds are passed (“the fridge defeats the TV”) and government workers feel that status no longer protects them, then a wave of protest can’t be far. When it comes to protest, sadly it will be violent in Russia - because previous protest has been violently dealt with.
Putin and his elite will definitely want to avoid that.
That’s already happening. The money means Ukraine can continue for a long time and Russia can’t simply wait them out.
The best way to deter Russia from using Nukes would be to stop funding Ukraine, stop saddling them with unpayable debt, and stop using them to threaten Russia. Let’s say Ukraine pushes Russia over the edge by damaging civilian infrastructure, then what? Ukraine gets nuked and they can’t even pay the interest on their loans.
Nobody is going to nuke Russia back for nuking Ukraine. It’s been over for them on the ground for a while. Now we’re testing drones and making Ukraine pay for the weapons project by taking out debt. In a few years there may not be a Ukraine, just a crater where it used to be.
It doesn’t work this way.
Imagine giving up before trying to survive
Though the word bufferstate should forever be a shameful word used with reluctance there is enough reason to believe retaliation is imminent when an action has direct consequences on the nations within the EU already
If you go damage someone’s infrastructure, shouldn’t you expect your infrastructure to get damaged in return?
Depends. Last I checked Russia wasn’t explicitly targeting civilians and infrastructure like power plants, schools and hospitals, unlike the Israelis and Americans.
Comrade, you need a little more subtilty. Your propaganda sucks
So last time you checked was, like, 2013? You should keep yourself better informed.
Did Putin tell you that?
[email protected] wrote:
You checked badly then. Just to bring the most poignant example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_safari_(terror_campaign)
The problem with your moronic hypotheticals is that Ukraine focuses on military and oil infra, they are not like russia and aiming at civilian infra.
And how about we let Ukraine decide what they want to do. If they want to keep fighting, we will support them. If they want to surrender, we will have to support them.
I recommend you take a history lesson before you suggest stupid shit like we appeasing genocidal dictators. I’m disappointed to know that theres stupid fucks in Lemmy as well. I guess its impossible to escape you guys.
To be paid by Russia from reparations. If reparations won’t be obtained, Ukraine won’t have to repay this.
As for the last point, I believe Russia has been repeatedly assured, gently and behind the scenes, that if forbidden weapons are used, then some flavour of doomsday will come. Now the assurance only depends too heavily on French and UK systems, since the US is suffering from mad president syndrome.
The reassuring thing is that Ukraine has worn Russian air defense so thin during the years, that an assurance from France and UK is now credible. The mistake of invading Ukraine has considerably weakened Russia’s deterrents, and infiltration by Ukraine has limited Russia’s ability to achieve surprise.
To be paid by Russia from reparations.You’re delusional. Do you also believe that the US is going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it? 😂
Mexico did not attack the US, why would they have to pay for a wall?
I’m helping you understand the terms of the loan, which you mis-represented while spreading propaganda.