Americans regularly make the mistake of assuming that other countries will behave like America, even when the evidence points the other way.
If China actually wanted to invade Taiwan it’s hard to imagine a better time to do it than right now.
The US has used up almost all it’s supply of Patriot interceptors and JASSM long range cruise missiles. We used up all our most effective ammunition attempting to bully Iran and even pulled ordinance out of the Pacific theater to do so.
On top of that the global economy is on shaky ground. This would be the most difficult time to try to put together a coalition to sanction China. It doesn’t help that they control many of the precursor resources that we need for our advanced weapons systems.
On the other hand, they’ve demonstrated that their geography gives them an option vis a vis Taiwan that the US does not have with Iran, they can force capitulation without a ground invasion. Taiwan is so close to mainland China that they can completely blockade the island. They’ve done it several times and gotten away with it just fine. They do this ever time anyone gets near their “red lines”; that’s basically any formal declaration of independence.
So the evidence points us to two obvious conclusions:
China will not invade Taiwan unilaterally.
If China does decide to use force, they’ll do so with a blockade.
They will get Taiwan though talks. They won’t invade because the US says it will bomb TMSC factory is China tries. It’s not worth the risk for China to try to invade. But they will get it though talks soon.
China definitely considers the downsides of all the options in front of them.
When it comes to Taiwan, US intervention of any sort is now likely much lower on their list.
They’ve been dumping funds into SMIC. Although they’re not on par with TSMC yet, they’re catching up fast. On top of that, the US would have a much harder time blowing up their factories (plural). They’ve used up most of the munitions that they could use to do it with and there’s no safe way to get a ship into firing range of Taiwan.
The biggest incentive is cost. Why fight over something that (as you pointed out) they can get through talks? It may take longer but it’s much cheaper that way.
Americans regularly make the mistake of assuming that other countries will behave like America, even when the evidence points the other way.
If China actually wanted to invade Taiwan it’s hard to imagine a better time to do it than right now. The US has used up almost all it’s supply of Patriot interceptors and JASSM long range cruise missiles. We used up all our most effective ammunition attempting to bully Iran and even pulled ordinance out of the Pacific theater to do so.
On top of that the global economy is on shaky ground. This would be the most difficult time to try to put together a coalition to sanction China. It doesn’t help that they control many of the precursor resources that we need for our advanced weapons systems.
On the other hand, they’ve demonstrated that their geography gives them an option vis a vis Taiwan that the US does not have with Iran, they can force capitulation without a ground invasion. Taiwan is so close to mainland China that they can completely blockade the island. They’ve done it several times and gotten away with it just fine. They do this ever time anyone gets near their “red lines”; that’s basically any formal declaration of independence.
So the evidence points us to two obvious conclusions:
They will get Taiwan though talks. They won’t invade because the US says it will bomb TMSC factory is China tries. It’s not worth the risk for China to try to invade. But they will get it though talks soon.
China definitely considers the downsides of all the options in front of them.
When it comes to Taiwan, US intervention of any sort is now likely much lower on their list. They’ve been dumping funds into SMIC. Although they’re not on par with TSMC yet, they’re catching up fast. On top of that, the US would have a much harder time blowing up their factories (plural). They’ve used up most of the munitions that they could use to do it with and there’s no safe way to get a ship into firing range of Taiwan.
The biggest incentive is cost. Why fight over something that (as you pointed out) they can get through talks? It may take longer but it’s much cheaper that way.