This is great. But I don’t think Iran is being entirely accurate here either. This whole ceasefire feels like Iran flexing on the US. But I don’t think that they actually expect the US to give into all of the demands.
Iran is “claiming victory” here in the same way Trump has been. But they actually have the leverage. Trump just has to bend the knee though. They won’t let him “look good”. And he’s already crying about this being “fake news”. His ego will never let him do that.
They are basically saying “here is your way out. You’ll look weak as fuck and be our removed”. Or, you can disagree, keep fighting, let us kill hundreds of thousands of your troops on the ground; and then agree to all of this once your economy is in ruins"
They called Trump’s bluff and are now holding all of the cards. They are not going to allow Trump a nice way out of this to claim “victory”. They either force him to look weak as fuck and literally abandon Israel. Or, they continue the shutdown of the strait in a couple weeks.
I think both sides know that this ceasefire will not last. But Iran is being honest and giving Trump a way out. I just don’t think Trump will take it to this degree. He’ll think he can actually win with more war.
Iran has done damage. But unless the US actually accepts all these terms (I don’t think they will). Iran will not have done nearly enough damage to prevent the US from doing this again. And they know that.
They need to actually damage the US where it hurts. With a red stock market. That’s the only thing the rulers of the US care about.
Great assessment TBH. Iran is clearly posturing here, they haven’t won yet, even though the US did lose already.
US plutocrats don’t actually care that much whether the stock market is red or green in the short term, they will make money from it either way. I think the existing strategy of jacking up oil prices (which will impact the economy long-term) and also hitting their assets directly where possible (e.g. datacenters and refineries) will have more impact.
However, it is also possible that with some reshuffling of the demands the ceasefire might actually hold. If they allow Trump to not lose face, they could get most of their demands practically met and be the ultimate victors in this. I hope this is how it goes, otherwise we might see a worldwide famine due to fertilizer shortages by the end of this year.
This is great. But I don’t think Iran is being entirely accurate here either. This whole ceasefire feels like Iran flexing on the US. But I don’t think that they actually expect the US to give into all of the demands.
Iran is “claiming victory” here in the same way Trump has been. But they actually have the leverage. Trump just has to bend the knee though. They won’t let him “look good”. And he’s already crying about this being “fake news”. His ego will never let him do that.
They are basically saying “here is your way out. You’ll look weak as fuck and be our removed”. Or, you can disagree, keep fighting, let us kill hundreds of thousands of your troops on the ground; and then agree to all of this once your economy is in ruins"
They called Trump’s bluff and are now holding all of the cards. They are not going to allow Trump a nice way out of this to claim “victory”. They either force him to look weak as fuck and literally abandon Israel. Or, they continue the shutdown of the strait in a couple weeks.
I think both sides know that this ceasefire will not last. But Iran is being honest and giving Trump a way out. I just don’t think Trump will take it to this degree. He’ll think he can actually win with more war.
Iran has done damage. But unless the US actually accepts all these terms (I don’t think they will). Iran will not have done nearly enough damage to prevent the US from doing this again. And they know that.
They need to actually damage the US where it hurts. With a red stock market. That’s the only thing the rulers of the US care about.
Great assessment TBH. Iran is clearly posturing here, they haven’t won yet, even though the US did lose already.
US plutocrats don’t actually care that much whether the stock market is red or green in the short term, they will make money from it either way. I think the existing strategy of jacking up oil prices (which will impact the economy long-term) and also hitting their assets directly where possible (e.g. datacenters and refineries) will have more impact.
However, it is also possible that with some reshuffling of the demands the ceasefire might actually hold. If they allow Trump to not lose face, they could get most of their demands practically met and be the ultimate victors in this. I hope this is how it goes, otherwise we might see a worldwide famine due to fertilizer shortages by the end of this year.
deleted by creator