I agree, the most likely case here is that this is a disaster for the US, whether they have to make an unfavorable deal with Iran and walk away (the best case for the Americans at this point), or they end up with the casualties from boots on the ground.

However the US gets to disaster, and what magnitude it is between the two extremes above, this is more likely one of a string of signs evident to future historians of eroding American control, ahead of the real Suez moment.