The concern is going to be attacks by Iran. One of Iran’s points of leverage is that it sits astride important maritime trade routes, so it can threaten to generally dick up global maritime trade to try to influence countries, and it has done so in this case.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz

During 2023–2025, 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas and 25% of seaborne oil trade passed through the strait annually. The strait had never been closed for extended time during Middle East conflicts (unlike the Straits of Tiran/Bab-el-Mandeb)[5] though Iran occasionally had threatened to close the strait,[6][7] and preparations to mine it have been undertaken.[8]

On 28 February 2026, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards began issuing VHF transmissions stating that ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz were “not allowed”, amid the 2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran, including the assassination of Iran’s leader.[9]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260301-iran-confirms-attack-on-oil-tanker-for-defying-orders-not-to-cross-strait-of-hormuz/

Iran confirmed Sunday that it had attacked an oil tanker for defying orders not to cross the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Anadolu reports.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-03-05/more-tankers-come-under-attack-as-us-iran-conflict-spreads-in-the-region

A Bahamas-flagged crude ​oil tanker was targeted by an Iranian remote-controlled boat laden with explosives while anchored near Iraq’s Khor al Zubair port, according to initial assessments. A second tanker at ‌anchor off Kuwait was taking on water and ‌spilling oil after a large explosion on its port side.

Nine vessels have come under attack since the conflict broke out between the U.S., Israel and Iran on ⁠Saturday. Iran launched ⁠a wave of missiles at Israel early on Thursday and also sent drones into Azerbaijan, injuring ​four people.

The escalation comes after a motion to halt the U.S. attacks was blocked in Washington and as the son of Iran’s slain supreme leader emerged as a frontrunner to succeed him, suggesting Tehran was not about to buckle under the pressure.

Around 200 ships, including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers as well as cargo ships, remained at anchor ​in open waters off the coast of major Gulf producers, according to Reuters estimates based on ship-tracking data from the MarineTraffic platform.

Hundreds of ⁠other vessels ⁠remained outside the Strait of Hormuz ⁠unable to reach ports, shipping ​data showed. The waterway is a key artery for around a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supply.

President Donald Trump offered U.S. ​Navy escorts and insurance in a bid ⁠to restart shipping flows and curtail energy prices. Insurance market Lloyd’s of London said on Thursday it is engaging with the U.S. government on a plan.

My own personal guess is that saying “Chinese owner” or something like that on AIS isn’t going to have much impact, since whatever assessment Iran is doing before going after a ship probably is a little deeper than a quick skim of whatever AIS says, but I suppose that if you’re on a ship and plan to do a run through, you do whatever you can.

It would absolutely be world war 3. I don’t think China would be like “no problem we understand it was an accident”