My understanding: there was no imminent threat to the US or Israel. The strike was driven by opportunity, not threat. Ali Khamenei made a mistake, exposing himself by convening a meeting at his official residence in Tehran. US intelligence found out and informed Israel. Israel sent planes and hit the complex with 30 missiles within one minute, killing everyone who they could have negotiated with.
If Iran does not crumble instantly, the 40-kilometer strait of Hormuz cannot be made safe for international oil traffic without a ground invasion of Iran. Which the US is not prepared for, and Israel is not capable of.
So, unless Iran has a revolution (very unlikely during war), Iran can threaten the energy supply of Asian countries and the income of Arab countries. The US and Israel can pound Iran from the air, but drones can be made in a well equipped garage.
Khamini didn’t make a mistake, his location was definitely available for a long time, it just that 1) the negotiation was going very well, 2) they wanted a biblical date so they can justify it to their religious lunatics. 3) they waited for the weekend to control the market.
Nothing about this reads as an opportunity that they had to take because the plan was already in motion.
My understanding: there was no imminent threat to the US or Israel. The strike was driven by opportunity, not threat. Ali Khamenei made a mistake, exposing himself by convening a meeting at his official residence in Tehran. US intelligence found out and informed Israel. Israel sent planes and hit the complex with 30 missiles within one minute, killing everyone who they could have negotiated with.
‘Sixty seconds, that’s all it took’: the clinical Israeli-US operation to kill Ali Khamenei
…and there seems to be no long-term plan.
If Iran does not crumble instantly, the 40-kilometer strait of Hormuz cannot be made safe for international oil traffic without a ground invasion of Iran. Which the US is not prepared for, and Israel is not capable of.
So, unless Iran has a revolution (very unlikely during war), Iran can threaten the energy supply of Asian countries and the income of Arab countries. The US and Israel can pound Iran from the air, but drones can be made in a well equipped garage.
In my book, that’s called a stalemate.
Khamini didn’t make a mistake, his location was definitely available for a long time, it just that 1) the negotiation was going very well, 2) they wanted a biblical date so they can justify it to their religious lunatics. 3) they waited for the weekend to control the market.
Nothing about this reads as an opportunity that they had to take because the plan was already in motion.