Fewer congressional contests are expected to be competitive this fall, compared with past election cycles, and experts say the extraordinary mid-decade redistricting efforts initiated by President Trump are largely to blame.
Fewer competitive seats means the overwhelming majority — more than 90% — of congressional races will pretty much be decided during primary elections, which see far fewer voters participate than general elections.
“Right now, we only rate 18 out of 435 races as toss ups, which means that less than 5% of Americans will truly be deciding who’s in control of the House,” David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, told NPR.
This disparity in the voting power of Americans in congressional races has been a worsening problem for several election cycles.
MAGA only has a 1 vote lead in the house, so 18 potential flips is HUGE. Its likely that a lot more that 1 will flip.
And despite the claim that only 18 are competitive, several decades of election watching experience will tell you that in a big volatile midterm like this one, there will also be 2 or 3 races that nobody saw coming, and will surprise everyone. It happens every time.
Example: Lauren Boebert in 2022 was waaaaay closer than expected. When you talk about 99% probability of a certain winner in a house with 435 seats, it’s bound to happen.
But also: redistricting to get more seats comes at the expense of tighter margins. Democrats have been way over performing since Trump’s installation - if they’re not flipping seats, they’re making ruby red races a lot less so. That could cause a huge backfire for Republicans if the trend continues.
Well, you do have to keep in mind that the outcomes of those races are highly correlated with each other, so you can’t calculate the odds in a straightforward way. But the more of a wave election it is, the more the chances of a surprise flip.
I’m glad that voting is what will fix everything /s
Not to worry - our lefties won’t vote anyway.
iT’s tHe DeMoCrAtZ fAuLt! Bourgeoise oppressor swine-pigs!
trump 4 lyfe!
I’m so confused by the conflict in this comment. Who are you criticizing ?
If you don’t know then bless you.
In a few months hang around the politicalmemes comms and you’ll see them out in force. They’re usually in any politics thread about Democrats as well.
But your comment has conflicting opinions in it. ?
It really doesn’t.
I’ll break it down for you. It’s unclear what position you are taking and if you are being sarcastic and which points you are bring sarcastic about. All of them ?
You can use “s/” to denote sarcastic points at the end of comments to clarify. Don’t expect people to read your mind from across a screen. They can’t anymore than you can.
-Not to worry - our lefties won’t vote anyway.-
Criticizing lefts, typically from more extreme leftist, libertarians, or anarchists.
-iT’s tHe DeMoCrAtZ fAuLt! Bourgeoise oppressor swine-pigs!-
Criticizing entire party affiliation as being fascist because they are the rich class (no one is rich except Republican billionaires), typically from an extreme leftist or from maga side.
-trump 4 lyfe!- Supporting fascist regime , typically from maga
Wow, that’s confused it more than I thought possible! Well done.
Here, you seem to be struggling a little bit so let’s make it super simple. My position is: everyone who can vote should vote. Furthermore, my position is that voting in numbers that defeat trump is of paramount importance.
That it could be considered to be not just other than that, but several wildly different others in the context of this comm on this platform at this time is . . . impressive.
Well you are the one with the downvoted comment that no one understood.
Other people can’t read tone in text. Or see facial expressions.
Your text was unclear. I took the time to explain why and you got mad. Ok fine. I will just not help you out next time.
I guess thanks at least for finally explaining yourself.
Your point was not clear in the original text. And I explained why.
