The flash manufacturers are expecting shortages through 2030. GPU’s have been a shit show for years now, and RAM and SSD’s are following. Now HDD’s are following SSD’s.
It’s getting too expensive for anyone to build a PC or small home server. So what’s going to happen to the other companies? It’s going to be hard to stay in business making ATX desktop cases and power supplies. Demand for consumer CPU’s will fall and lead to AMD and Intel shifting their capacity to enterprise on that front too. Motherboards will follow as well. Some of that is more flexible than others, but even if the AI bubble pops it’s going to take years for the markets to recover.
Think of the housing market. Real estate developers in the US, Canada, UK, Australia, and a lot of the rest of the world have spent decades focusing on building large single-family luxury homes at high profit margins. To the point where they would rather keep building large homes and leave them empty over building apartment buildings or duplexes or smaller homes. I see a similar trend in the consumer PC space, and it’s going to take government regulation to stop it.
A problem is that a lot of the companies that make consumer hardware cannot survive in the meantime.
The flash manufacturers are expecting shortages through 2030. GPU’s have been a shit show for years now, and RAM and SSD’s are following. Now HDD’s are following SSD’s.
It’s getting too expensive for anyone to build a PC or small home server. So what’s going to happen to the other companies? It’s going to be hard to stay in business making ATX desktop cases and power supplies. Demand for consumer CPU’s will fall and lead to AMD and Intel shifting their capacity to enterprise on that front too. Motherboards will follow as well. Some of that is more flexible than others, but even if the AI bubble pops it’s going to take years for the markets to recover.
Think of the housing market. Real estate developers in the US, Canada, UK, Australia, and a lot of the rest of the world have spent decades focusing on building large single-family luxury homes at high profit margins. To the point where they would rather keep building large homes and leave them empty over building apartment buildings or duplexes or smaller homes. I see a similar trend in the consumer PC space, and it’s going to take government regulation to stop it.
The Chinese are moving aggressively into this market.
If shortages last until the 2030s, they will catch up and dominate the market.
I will have no sympathy for Western companies if that happens.