So now we can add “directly capturing a sovereign leader” to the list of crap the US has done. So what do you think will actually be “the straw that broke the camels back” for world leaders to actually do something? Think it’ll be significant or something mundane?
China is going to flip the script very soon. They have already overtaken the USA on some economic metrics, their industrial power is growing while the petro-dollar is in its death throes and American trade power is collapsing on every front.
America’s only real power remaining is the military, which is incredibly strong, but maybe not enough to exert power over a world united behind China’s Belts and Roads diplomacy while simultaneously dealing with a divided populous at home.
If America has to go full warmonger those over seas will be fine if they can last the initial onslaught.
It’s more Canada and Mexico that will just get absolutely fucked.
They’re one of the few rapidly developing economies left, following the post Soviet stagnation.
But that just introduces another superpower on the world stage. It doesn’t eliminate the US in any material capacity.
America’s biggest card to play is the Petrodollar. The military has facilitated destruction of competition. But our ability to dictate currency flow and command global trade via a monetary system our federal bank controls is so much more important.
Everyone keeps saying Europe and Asia will go their own way. Let me know when they finally do. Because I’m still waiting.
The Petrodollar is dying fast though, with some saying it’s already dead.
It is absolutely not. The USD has enormous international buying power today, after coming off a bull running dating back to the '08 crash.
The backbone of the petrodollar is the deal with the Saudis where they agreed to exclusively trade oil in USD. That deal is no longer in place. Furthermore, Iran is reaching rapprochement with the Saudis, and the Trump tariffs have destroyed US trade credibility. The geopolitics of oil are shifting, and not in the US’s favor.
This is the real reason the US wants to steal Venezuela’s oil now. Their global oil hegemony is no longer enforceable through soft power.
So the petrodollar may not be dead today, and it may cling onto life for another decade, but (to my view) the writing is on the wall.
The non-renewal of the 50 year agreement hasn’t changed the Saudi wholesaling of their light sweet crude in USD. Nor has it discouraged the Saudis from accruing enormous volumes of US Treasury notes with those dollars. Nor purchasing US military equipment nor contracting with US energy companies for transport and refining nor gobbling up commodities in US agricultural and industrial markets.
It’s not. The US is a net oil exporter. We don’t need Venezuela’s oil now any more than we needed it 20 years ago, when the Fraking boom began.
But Venezuela’s export markets help keep Cuba’s economy afloat and their power on. Cutting off the bilateral trade between Venezuela and Cuba helps further isolate Cuba. And that opens Cuba up to a similar encirclement and bombardment and eventual decapitation of national leadership.
If you look at the people running the Trump bureaucracy, Cuba is the real crown jewel of Carribbean foreign policy. It’s the prize everyone from Marco Rubio to Jeff Bezos has their eyes on and the reason why Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort is crowded with guisanos looking to re-colonize the island.
None of this has to do with the petrodollar, which remains as strong as ever. The goal is to finally crack Cuba like the US cracked Chile, Argentina, and (for at least a little while under Bolsonaro) Brazil.
All good points, although I think multiple things can be true, especially when a narcissist like Trump is calling the shots. I suspect he saw the non-renewal as a threat he had to respond to with a disproportionate show of force, and Venezuela happens to tick that box too.
I’m sure folks in the US O&G industry are disgruntled. I doubt Trump can see past the next news cycle, and this wasn’t even headline news.
Trump’s been wrangling with every nation on the designated US Enemies List since he stepped foot into office. Venezuela’s not selling light sweet crude oil. If anything, its a competitor with Canadian Balkan crude.