Ukraine’s bargaining position gets worse the longer the war drags on. Unless there’s genuine reason to believe the tides will change in a lasting way, Ukraine’s best time to bargain is today, and every day following will be worse. Russia will not stop until they have the 4 oblasts, Ukraine stops oppressing ethnic Russians in their territory, and Russia has certification of Ukraine’s neutrality to NATO. These are the terms they have regularly re-affirmed, Ukraine can either continue to push an increasingly unpopular war until this happens anyways, try to bargain now so as to force concessions, or hope for a miracle and a changing of the tides.
Refusing some terms and proposing others is the definition of bargaining.
These terms would give Ukraine no assurance in the future of not being invaded. They gave up their nukes once for that promise, now they will have to give up territory. How much, that is part of the negotiations.
Ukraine isn’t in a position to repeatedly turn down all of Russia’s demands. Russia has the means to continue pursuing its goals, Ukraine does not. Ukraine broke both Minsk agreements and admitted to never intending on following them, Russia did not.
The reality of the situation is that Russia doesn’t have a reason to invade Ukraine in the future if their terms are met, namely the 4 oblasts, NATO neutrality, and cessation of Kiev’s oppressing ethnic Russians. People don’t go to war without reason, and unless Ukraine has an ace up their sleeves, every day is more dead Ukrainians, Russians, and more favorable conditions for Russia.
Ukraine’s bargaining position gets worse the longer the war drags on. Unless there’s genuine reason to believe the tides will change in a lasting way, Ukraine’s best time to bargain is today, and every day following will be worse. Russia will not stop until they have the 4 oblasts, Ukraine stops oppressing ethnic Russians in their territory, and Russia has certification of Ukraine’s neutrality to NATO. These are the terms they have regularly re-affirmed, Ukraine can either continue to push an increasingly unpopular war until this happens anyways, try to bargain now so as to force concessions, or hope for a miracle and a changing of the tides.
Refusing some terms and proposing others is the definition of bargaining.
These terms would give Ukraine no assurance in the future of not being invaded. They gave up their nukes once for that promise, now they will have to give up territory. How much, that is part of the negotiations.
Ukraine isn’t in a position to repeatedly turn down all of Russia’s demands. Russia has the means to continue pursuing its goals, Ukraine does not. Ukraine broke both Minsk agreements and admitted to never intending on following them, Russia did not.
The reality of the situation is that Russia doesn’t have a reason to invade Ukraine in the future if their terms are met, namely the 4 oblasts, NATO neutrality, and cessation of Kiev’s oppressing ethnic Russians. People don’t go to war without reason, and unless Ukraine has an ace up their sleeves, every day is more dead Ukrainians, Russians, and more favorable conditions for Russia.