Beef prices surged to an all-time high in July as the market grappled with consistently strong demand and long-term issues in domestic production.
According to the latest consumer price index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics published on Tuesday, the beef and veal index rose by 2.5% in July, compared to 0.2% for the broader food category. This capped an 11.3% increase over the past 12 months.
Meanwhile, the price of ground beef and uncooked beef steaks has risen by 11.5% and 12.4%, respectively, both now at record levels.
The cause is 100% the orange morons tariffs on this one.
Beef prices are cyclical. This is because beef producers have a lag time between price increases and their ability to increase their herds (2-3 years).
Historically when beef prices go up, domestic producers sell down their herds to capitalize on the higher pricing. Then imports increase to meet the demand and prices slump. It’s usually only a year or two of high prices and 7-8 years of low prices. Producers are conditioned to sell down their herds when prices are high then slowly rebuild them when prices are low.
Enter the orange moron:
Prices were at a normal cyclical high when he started throwing his tantrum and shitting in his diaper. With all the tariffs, producers in other countries decreased their stocking levels… So prices are soaring.
Demand has remained stable because the largest market is fast food chains. Guess who has spent the past 5 years jacking up prices and making record corporate profits?
Now for more bad news.
Hay prices are beyond depressed. With the decrease in herd size this is normal as supply increases. Again the export market usually absorbs the supply readily with the cheaper pricing. Then as beef prices fall, hay prices climb as producers rebuild their herds. Except the orange moron stepped in and killed the export market. So prices are very low, and supply is very high. We are talking high enough that there will be a shit ton of “mysterious” hay stack fires this fall for insurance claims.
Beef producers and hay producers are often the same operation. Since hay is worthless right now they can not build up their herds and have to keep selling animals to make ends meet.
So the prices at the store are only going to climb higher. Meanwhile the producers are stuck facing diminishing returns as their herd size decreases.
In summary, beans are looking pretty affordable right now.