- 43 Posts
- 74 Comments
2·1 month agoSomething I think is that back in 2008, I’m certain Hilary Clinton would have won and possibly won by a bigger margin than Obama. Practically anyone that won the dem primary in 2008 would have won after the start of the financial crisis and the albatross of middle eastern wars, but Clinton in 2008 hadn’t been so successfully smeared and there wasn’t 8 years of continued middle eastern wars and widening income inequality discontent under a dem president where interest in party outsiders exploded. Plus the significance of social media was so much more important in 2016 than 2012 and 2008 and Clintons poor adaptability to the daily internet mood swings wouldn’t have been a problem in 2008 when Facebook was still duking it out with MySpace and didn’t really have middle aged and older people yet, youtube was 2 years old, twitter was niche, reddit was really nerdy, instagram wasn’t a thing yet
I’m certain in 2008 Clinton would have won easily, won by a larger margin, faced less unified opposition from republicans in congress. 2024 ended up so close that I’m sure if there was a democratic primary, Harris would not have won but whoever did win, would have beaten Donald Trump. Like if the Michigan governor ran and won the primary, Gretchen Whitmer would be president
8·2 months agoThat’ll be nice to see. I like Collabora but haven’t tried hosting it. Opening that up and LibreOffice up side by side with the tabbed interface, barely any different. Maybe LibreOffice exposes way more buttons in each tab so maybe more intimidating but it looks pretty good compared to what I remember when the tabbed interface was first made available. Looking forward to seeing this progress
21·2 months agoThere are levels of paranoia that gets to the point of excessive time spent managing your footprint that could be better used elsewhere as I would imagine especially if you’re not a high value target. I am not a high value target
It doesn’t take 3nm/2nm chips to make a great computer. The Switch 2 is has a Samsung 8nm SoC. Steam Deck is TSMC 7nm. A Steam Deck has a better processor than my Intel N150 NAS. We don’t need the strongest hardware for self hosting. Don’t need it for a good gaming experience. Someday we’ll get second hand server parts salvaged into home equipment. The PS5 had that jailbreak. That can someday be a useful Linux machine. Someday the Xbox Series. Someday there’ll be a wave of RISC-V SBC’s that are better than the most recent raspberry pi
1·3 months agoThe thread is about servers and supercomputers being dominated by Linux
Don’t have anything recurring. More like random $10-20 thrown here and there. It’d probably be more often if it was all more integrated/streamlined. Pretty much the hyped up Flathub payments feature someday. I’d do that more often than patreon/opencollective/etc. I’ve had a patreon sub for a few projects over the years
I don’t think 10 lifetimes is enough for me to learn about all the software that people out there run on Linux servers. Then I die my last lifetime and people come up with new software. Myself as an individual could see all that and say that software like that should be available on a server OS especially to compete with Linux. A huge company with over a hundred thousand employees. They can probably crowdsource through their employees a way longer list than me but will leadership read the list? Will they greenlight funding development for all that software? Will they match up to as good and ideally better to be worth paying for than the free and open source stuff on Linux? Will they keep up development on all that software or fall behind the open source stuff?
If they can’t do that, there’s no reason for any company to smartly spend money on a proprietary server OS license for what would be immediately a worse product or a product that is at best just as good or a product that would inevitably end up being worse than the Linux ecosystem. I consider it an impossibility for a new proprietary OS to cover the whole breadth of server software out there and even the whole breadth of server hardware support. I’m not sure what the status is of Windows Server ARM and Windows Server RISC-V. Don’t know how popular POWER is on server or if SPARC is still kicking. That’s top 5 largest company in the world Microsoft that’s been doing operating systems for like 40 years.
Doing a Linux spin makes the most sense.
Plus Linux development is supported by a huge amount of large companies. It’s not rag tag open source freelancers vs mega-corporation. It would be a collection of mega-corporations to small corporations plus independent individuals vs a mega-corporation
1·5 months agoSweden has nearly a century constant fighter aircraft making experience but by the time of the gripen it all became so costly that it’s heavily made of tech from like the UK and other European countries. Engines from the US. A big problem with trying to develop a modern engine without having all the research and industrial experience transferred from another country, it would take tens of billions of USD of research to accomplish even with good industrial espionage
Like the big hiccups for Russian 5th gen fighters are the engines. 30+ years of development and it’s just barely looking like it’s coming to readiness and that’s with decades prior of other engines developed. For today’s modern engines that became competitive at the high end competition, for China, research really started in the 70s. India had been trying since the 90s. It’s an insanely expensive research project. Canada would likely have a worse time funding it than India.
South Korea and Turkey are likely a good aspiration for Canada while a Sweden a model they can better emulate. Canada would be far behind those SK/T in terms of domestic technology they can draw from though. Canada has Bombadier at least
I don’t think 20 years is enough especially for countries without the experience to fall back on. Not counting licensed builds. Engines and materials science. Also all the software. Digital and analog instruments. Modern fighters operate in connection with ground data links, satellite data links, other partner aircraft data links. All incredibly expensive and time consuming to develop
Countries with experience in Europe are all trying to partner up because of the financial costs and different part specialities for a 6th gen fighter and mockups make them look more like they’d be a gen 5.5 and they’re pretty much all targeting ~2035 operationally when serious planning started between 2015-2020. I would not bet on any of the european gen 5+ being operationally ready for serial production by 2035.
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/vietnam-defense-and-security-sector
Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that from 1995 to 2022, Vietnam’s arms imports totaled USD9.162 billion, in which Russia accounted for USD7.471 billion (81.5%).
https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/the-art-of-bending-without-breaking-vietnams-quiet-power-play/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/23/us-lifts-decades-long-embargo-on-arms-sales-to-vietnam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_strategic_partnerships_of_Vietnam
https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-visits-vietnam-after-biden-seeks-boost-ties-2023-12-12/
https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1728310/viet-nam-china-trade-poised-for-new-record-in-2025.html
https://en.nhandan.vn/viet-nam-china-strengthen-bilateral-trade-cooperation-post154650.html
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-continues-four-nos-defense-policy-4637076.html
I will not answer what country I’m from. Same way I don’t expect most Americans to understand their country’s foreign policy, I don’t expect that of pretty much any country’s people. This person has given me no reason to believe they have much knowledge of Vietnamese politics let alone historical if they think friendly relations between Vietnam and Russia and Russian arm sales to Vietnam is going to cause some social unrest in Vietnam.
I don’t rely on my friends in France to tell me the foreign policy leanings of France. Not Germany, not Spain, not Australia. People generally don’t follow politics beyond their bubble of information. It’s not their job. The guys whole arguments are just he travels to a country and get’s the feels from his friends.
If I based my whole understanding of nations on the people I’m friends with, every country in the world would be composed of leftist and filled with scientist and filmmakers. National Rally wouldn’t be rising in France. AFD wouldn’t be rising in Germany. The UK wouldn’t have anti-immigration rallies attended by over 100k people. Turkey and India wouldn’t have purchased S400 systems. Egypt wouldn’t have HQ-9B. Decades of diplomacy and outside of India and Pakistan people keep being surprised by the warmer relations that the US has with Pakistan over India. Friends are an ignorant way to determine the operations of a country. My friends are a bubble
China sells military jets to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia. They’ve sold naval vessels to Thailand. China’s navy appears to have a significant presence in Cambodia with frequent extended dockings. It’s a rapidly changing region of the world for foreign policy currently.
I didn’t push on what the cultural differences between Vietnam and China are that make relations difficult anymore than like the Phillipines which is what I would guess is the person being from stemming from their interest in the disputed South China Sea. Tensions in the South China Sea exist but from my view, that takes a backseat to economic oppurtunity. It’ll take a backseat to global warming and issues with their coastlines and weather patterns. Money and industrial capabilities is going to be incredibly important to deal with global warming in that region and that will factor into what Vietnam or the Phillipines can afford to do in the future for the disputed islands. I’ll even avoid the linguistic approach as I know depending on the political leaning of a Viet person you are talking to, it can be a touchy subject in regards to nationalism and pedagogical policy.
The history of China and Vietnam is very long. There’s a famous historical Chinese general thousands of years ago that also happens to be a famous northern Vietnamese general. It’s a very long history. Many wars. About a millennium in total of the northern part of Vietnam being a part of China though not continuous. Many successful independence wars. Historic vietnam and historic china relations stretches back to the neolithic age. There’s syncretism that stretches back thousands of years before even getting to modern governmental structure, holidays, traditions, religions, music/instruments, film, clothing, cuisine, … etc. It’s not so simple as “Vietnamese people hate Chinese people.” A lot more nuanced than that and a lot of migration over the millenniums though even limited to the last century that make the claims I hear of that a bit ridiculous. For the handful that actually have strong broad opinions on Chinese people from Vietnamese people, there’s a solid chance they may have a differing opinion on Chinese from the north vs the south of the country. Same with the simple takes I hear in regards to China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan relations and what they will all certainly do to each other in the future
Non-alignment is difficult to comprehend when living in countries fully embracing of the diplomatic polar world but for Vietnam there’s a famous song from the unification war era. This is the rendition I’m familiar with. All that matters is independence. Vietnam is not only an ally of any or combination of the US, China, or Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0h2YgM9KRk
Vietnam’s non-alignment is possibly more impressive than Pakistans since Vietnams economy has come out as a lot more robust while playing every major side. While it’s in a period of industrialization making parts of the country having poor air quality to support manufacturing for export to countries like the US, the cities are very clean as compared to like Bengaluru, city in another non-aligned country, India.
On the point of US-China-Taiwan and RAND Corp
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4107-1.html
It’s a very interesting progression of RAND Corp’s suggestions compared to their history of opinions. If you’re unaware of RAND Corp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAND_Corporation
One interesting field to study is trying to understand the whys for the difference between Vietnam’s international relations compared to Japan, Taiwan, and Korean peninsula. They all share so much cultural traditions. China has more history of control over Vietnam than Taiwan so why far far more tension there than Vietnam. Far more history with Vietnam in general. A much longer history with Vietnam than with Japan but internationally people don’t think of relations of Vietnam with China like they think of Japan and China. And even that Japan/China relation is a lot more nuanced than most of my friends anywhere in the world would believe. Even the Taiwan/China discussion is a lot more nuanced in Taiwan than outside. It should be. In the event of war, they’re the ones that would suffer the most casualties and loss of infrastructure and potentially water import issues
You’ve been attacking me. I’m not saying there’s not tensions. I’m saying the tensions are cooling. Probably heat up again in the future but it’s not 2015. A lot has changed just this year in terms of governmental agreements between the two countries
Congrats you’re a tourist to Vietnam. The US wasn’t elevated to a similar diplomatic level as China until 2023. 2 years of solid diplomatic relations compared to at least 15 years with China. 2 years until the Trump tariffs. The war with the US may have ended in the 70s but the bulk of sanctions didn’t end until towards the end of the 90s and US arms sales being made available the last decade have not even been close enough of high volume to displace Russian equipment in the Vietnamese military.
Factions within the party that either favor the US, Russia, China or neutrality. According to your article they just purchased Russian fighter jets. They’ve been buying Russian military equipment damn near every year for a long time. Vietnam and China have been signing new trade deals just this year. They held their first joint army drills together just this year.
Geographic neighbors are your worst risk for war but the ones that also end up your primary trade partner and the power imbalance so very much favors China that being a China hawk in Vietnam may as well be suicide. Right now Vietnam is progressing towards a Mexico relationship with China but a lot more prosperous and safe than Mexico
The tension in the South China Sea is far more tense with the Philippines. If any war is happening in the next 20 years it’s with them and I doubt that happening too. Past 20 years and at that point any 4th gen fighter is even more outdated than today.
The US didn’t even attend the most recent independence parade in Vietnam, China did with their military in the parade for the first time this year. Vietnam participated in victory day parades this year in China and Russia. Those were likely planned before Trump 48% tariff threat.
It seems to me you’re more outdated in your views. The current 4th gen fighters are not going to be useful in the South China Sea. Not this decade or the next. The military gap between Vietnam and China is growing rather than closing and it’ll be a long time until that changes. So right now it makes sense that Vietnam continues to increase trade, tourism, military cooperation with China while balancing with Russia and the US. Vietnam isn’t close to war with China. Vietnam is shaping up to be neutral between whatever conflicts China may be in the next couple decades
Your a tourist to Vietnam. You probably want war between the two countries so whatever your country is has the opportunity to have better relations with Vietnam or for China to be preoccupied with them in war rather than your country. But for Vietnamese people in Vietnam, I highly doubt they’re as jingoistic for war with China like people that don’t live in Vietnam. They’re the ones that would die. Vietnam balances relations with China, the US, and Russia and the US is late to the modern Vietnamese diplomatic party compared to China and especially compared to Russia. That’s the prevailing foreign policy of Vietnam and this year has been a year of China and Russia gaining in Vietnam, not the US.
Things change. Just this year. Like read the latest RAND Corp policy opinion report on China-Taiwan. Crazy shift in strategy opinion for a historically influential think thank in the US. Countries you see as potentially strong counterbalances to China aren’t going to be so hawkish with China when the US and EU are getting skittish. The South China Sea conflict will continue but Vietnam won’t have much ability there for decades and economic growth will prioritize over military so continued improving trade relations with China will be priority over very small islands in the South China Sea. A compromise that they’d rather be more in their favor but can’t be for economic and military reasons
Respond to my points. Vietnam isn’t close to war with China. Russia is their primary arms supplier and has been for decades. China arms exports to Vietnam are be becoming more frequent. Military drills and attendance of military parades are occuring now that did not happen just 10 years ago. China is Vietnams largest source for imports and growing for exports.
Tell me why is war with China going to happen when China is focused on Taiwan and Vietnam is in the process of an economic boom where China is a major market with a trade route that can’t be interrupted? They share a border
France and the US literally killed millions of Vietnamese and then proceeded to sanction the crap out of them to sub-Saharan Africa levels of poverty. Vietnam had to build trade relations outside of the NATO world. The US literally threatened a 48% tariff on Vietnam half a year ago. Tariffed Vietnam back during Trump admin #1 as well
Your posts makes it very clear you’re new to international arms sales happenings. You just need to study arms sales history and equipment capabilities. Tell me why dozens of Rafale, F-16, Gripens, Eurofighters, or Sukhois would be a problem for China’s surface to air defenses let alone hundreds of J-20 and J-35s before the 1000+ J-11, J-15, J-16 and J-10’s. The cheapest is the best choice because the most expensive won’t be any more useful. Are Vietnam buying AWACs and large radar systems too? If not, these 4th gen jet fighters are even more useless against China
They likely don’t mind. Historically Soviet Union and successor Russia for arms industry has been Vietnams primary arms supplier. It’s not like France ever tried to make serious amends with any of their former colonies and the hundreds of thousands to millions killed in the process. It’s just business with France as if nothing ever happened. Same with the US. The same thing is happening currently across Africa. Russia is a less opinionated arms supplier and don’t have the baggage that France and the US have in the regions
War with China is unlikely anytime soon. Vietnams focus is primarily on its economy and building it’s own defense industry for both domestic and export. So all they need is modern enough with preference for cost. Russian fighter jets are cheap. Sure they’d be better off with a J-10c or J-35 but Sukhoi jets are diplomacy too and affordable and capable enough for peacetime. Turkey and India buy S400’s and India buys Sukhoi. With historic weapons purchased from Russia, integration and local parts and mechanics are probably more abundant.
They’re also fairly non-aligned so they import from Russia, China, and the US and in regards to the US, after the Vietnam war they were under sanctions for decades with US arms being made available I think in the last decade. Vietnam
Vietnams primary trade partner is China and once you hit the 90s as Vietnam would be under major sanctions for much of that decade, China was Vietnams market to export to. And it took until the past decade for exports to the US to really pickup. Then Trump 2 happens and they were initially slapped with one of the highest tariff from the US in the world.
Vietnam buying arms from Russia is reflected in historical relations that have been dependable and what has seemed to me rapid improvements in relations with China, the US and Europe themselves dropped the ball with Vietnam. First France and the US by not recognizing Vietnamese independence leading Ho Chi Minh to ally with the communist. Then the decades of sanctions. Then the tariffs
So Vietnams relationship with China have improved a ton since Trump 1. Stuff that didn’t happen before like Chinese military marching at independence parades in Vietnam with notable performance like learning the Vietnamese victory or maybe anthem (I don’t know which) and singing it well. Increasingly war with China is becoming unlikely as Vietnam focuses on its economy and increases trade with China and military sales from China increases.
Rafales are very expensive and US weapons imports come with very stringent rules for usage and limits on what a country can purchase. Turkey and India buy S400, no F-35. Maybe you get limited on ammunition too after sanctions from the US. Also US jets are expensive too along with lifetime upkeep costs.
Plus the case of war with China, of China stopped building fighter jets for the next 10 years and France sent all the Rafales they could build in ten years to Vietnam, in war with China, those Rafales would be demolished. Same with F-16’s, Eurofighters, Gripens, Su-35, probably Su-57, probably the future Su-75. Why spend so much money on aircraft in defense against China when China’s surface to air missiles would demolish them before even needing to send out J-10c, J-16, J-20, J-35 fighters. F-16, Gripens, Rafale, Eurofighter - those are obsolete in a war with China especially when sharing a border. Really the jets are for posturing among other southeast asian countries
Re-emphasize that France and the US have not been friendly with Vietnam for all that long and far from enough to be well built trusting relationships
So ya, Russia are bastards for invading Ukraine. Doesn’t make Su-35’s a bad purchase for Vietnam. Russia has been delivering aircraft to Algeria and Iran and Vietnam is likely not under urgent need for fighters like Iran. Vietnam right now doesn’t seem like war is anytime near. Better off with cheap Russian equipment and continue improving relations with China and someday maybe purchase J-35’s. Maybe some frigates
The US portion of the Vietnam war killed ~3 million Vietnamese, Lao, and Cambodian people. US bombings in Cambodia during the war lead to the fall of the neutral Cambodian government and the rise of the Khmer Rouge. Immediately before the US portion of the Vietnam war, the French killed hundreds of thousands more. Immediately before that was fighting against Japan and France during WW2. Immediately before that, fighting France for freedom. The Vietnam war was incredibly long and killed millions and set Cambodia towards a genocidal regime.
For Venezuela to be worse, millions would have to killed. Hundreds of thousands killed in neighboring countries. Chemical warfare employed that would lead to birth defects for decades to come. A neighboring country be bombed to civil war where a genocidal dictator rises power and commits a genocide. Venezuela then be successfully sanctioned to an extreme level of poverty for nearly 20+ years
The sanctioning power is already falling apart and non-US centric trade routes are a lot more mature than the 50-90s. The US military runs with extremely expensive equipment compared to the 60s/70s. Slow to build. War in Venezuela means it can’t sustain a war in Europe, the west Pacific, or the Middle East. Russia-Ukraine, Iraq and Afghanistan, Ethiopia-Tigray civil war, Sudan civil war. Got to add up numerous wars to compare to just the US portion of the Vietnam war
Also the US lost like 60,000 people in Vietnami believe France lost a similar amount as the US in the post-WW2 portion of the war
Going back to the Korean war, that too was far more brutal than people bother to learn
The Internet and the large Latin American population in the US may also lead to far more unrest in the US compared to Vietnam war American unrest. Venezuelan immigrants are substantial in the US compared to Viet people in the US during the Vietnam war
The brutality of Vietnam and Korea is like taking the European portion of WW2 and putting them in single countries. Carpet bombing, fire bombing, massacre after massacre. There’s been nothing comparable since. The wars in Africa have had way less difference in killing equipment between the factions compared to Vietnam and Korea and strategy has shifted from destroying everything to being more economical with military equipment. Recall that the US had major factions pushing to use nukes in both Korea and Vietnam. I doubt that’ll be the case for Venezuela
European and by extension American, Australian, South African, etc colonialism were far more genocidal than people get taught. By the 50s it was a lot less genocidal and look how that went. The previous centuries, elimination and replacement of local populations weren’t unpopular ideas, just impractical and not understood how to yet
It’d be a forever war. It won’t be as terrible as Vietnam since they’re a lot further from arms suppliers than Vietnam but Venezuela still has a significant military. They have a varied terrain including jungles and mountain ranges. US has historically antagonized every country in Latin America including now neighboring Colombia and Brazil - Brazil itself having a significant arms industry. You may not have a steady stream of Russian fighter jets to Venezuela, but I’m certain missiles, guns, artillery would all manage to make it to Venezuelan resistance. I wouldn’t be surprised if people all the way out from Nicaragua would make their way into Venezuela to fight the US
That whole region is impossible to see how it ends up. Ethiopia and Trigray. Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia and Somolia. Somalia and Puntland and Khatumo. Egypt and Ethiopia. Sudan hanging out in between with their own civil war. Then over time Rwanda is setting themselves up to try and be the Israel and may end up to varying degrees attacking everyone
Ethiopia purchases arms from Russia as well. Russia was supportive to Ethiopia in Tigray. Ethiopia has been a solid ally for Russia in the UN since the the war started. Ethiopia has a good relationship with Russia
There was one comment where their proof of why Romani people are terrible, violent, incestuous, etc was an article about how bad the reputation of Romanian people are in other countries
Then one comment included a - did you even know that roma people trace back to India. Something about the people make the country so that’s why it’s trash heap of the world. It was said in a way where it was like a common understanding for people everywhere to think Indian people are terrible. The Indian comment was so out of no where
They were getting mad that I was insulting them because I don’t know them and their community. Don’t see the problem. First they classified millions of Romani people as violent, thieves, incestuous, whatever. Then they went ahead and characterized the nature of over a billion and a half people of South Asian subcontinental heritage by linking what they accuse as the nature of Romani people as being because they trace back a very very very long time ago to present day India and Pakistan
Friend one day added me to his family plan because they had one space open. I’m still in the habit of always going to youtube in ways I can ad-block but am always pleasantly surprised when I go in the normal youtube app and I have no ads. I’ll pay for the service though