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Joined 2 年前
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Cake day: 2023年7月3日

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  • What’s crazy about this whole thing, is how many people I see insenting this can’t be WW3, solely because there have been multiple events happening that people said could lead to WW3…

    This. It starts with a cascading series of small, often unrelated events that coalesce over time. They may not seem connected until viewed in retrospect. There might only be just a couple of belligerent nations pushing the boundary to see how much they can get away with at first, until eventually other nations decide to stop being bystanders and intercede in a now global conflict.

    I’m not inclined to doomsay and predict that World War 3 is imminent, but I’m not going to rule out the possibility that people in the future might be talking about the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine or Israel/the US and Iran like they do about Germany annexing the Sudetenland and Japan invading China.

    And with the threat of nuclear armageddon feeling closer than ever since the Cold War, I’m worried the takeaway from these events is just going to be that not having nuclear weapons is a mistake (Ukraine voluntarily surrendering theirs, Iran supposedly trying to develop some). The best way to not get invaded is to have nukes.



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  • Administrative detentions can be longer. On paper they can hold you about a month, but it can be longer than that with a judge’s signoff if they have proof of a crime.

    This is typically where the police try to get you to confess to something and drag it out as long and uncomfortably as possible until you do, after which you either get to go free (though you end up on a list for a long time) or you may go to a “black jail”/黑監獄 which is a sort of under-the-table prison.

    The terms of release can also sometimes require completion of a rehabilitation program, which is often the voluntary alternative to prison, or getting transferred to a short stay detention center for a few months to perform community service.