The motivations for anything have gotten super foggy because there’s so many threads. But it seems to me that the ultimate goal must be the destruction of the global economy and thus the overall globalized world order in order to return to a feudal society including serfs and lords
There’s an old saying “the US doesn’t lose wars, it loses interest.” I think that’s a bit generous but it highlights how the US is often in unpopular wars that the imperialist leadership wants but the people don’t. For Iran, this is a fight for survival of the regime. The gulf states would probably rather Trump not start the war but now that it is started, they probably want the US to actually wipe out the regime so Iran can’t build back with their toll money. The US is trying to add credibility to their threats to get concessions at the negotiating table. That probably won’t work against Iran who has nothing left to lose. Trump might actually not care too much about the midterms since he’s not up for reelection and he’s consolidated power enough that he doesn’t need a ton of congressional support. I think he’s overplaying his hand. I bet that before the midterms, you’ll see a “mission accomplished” banner and a withdrawal and threats against Europe of they don’t start to get their navys involved. Europe would probably rather continue to decarbonize than get tangled up in Iran. The gulf states will break with the US. Oil prices will stay high for everyone.
The motivations for anything have gotten super foggy because there’s so many threads. But it seems to me that the ultimate goal must be the destruction of the global economy and thus the overall globalized world order in order to return to a feudal society including serfs and lords
There’s an old saying “the US doesn’t lose wars, it loses interest.” I think that’s a bit generous but it highlights how the US is often in unpopular wars that the imperialist leadership wants but the people don’t. For Iran, this is a fight for survival of the regime. The gulf states would probably rather Trump not start the war but now that it is started, they probably want the US to actually wipe out the regime so Iran can’t build back with their toll money. The US is trying to add credibility to their threats to get concessions at the negotiating table. That probably won’t work against Iran who has nothing left to lose. Trump might actually not care too much about the midterms since he’s not up for reelection and he’s consolidated power enough that he doesn’t need a ton of congressional support. I think he’s overplaying his hand. I bet that before the midterms, you’ll see a “mission accomplished” banner and a withdrawal and threats against Europe of they don’t start to get their navys involved. Europe would probably rather continue to decarbonize than get tangled up in Iran. The gulf states will break with the US. Oil prices will stay high for everyone.