I don’t understand why there’s no secondary option if Strait of Hormuz goes down. Obviously there are alternative routes out there but why big gas companies even governments did not see this coming. Are they okay losing billions? Or do they actually have a plan that ordinary people don’t know about?

  • blarghly@lemmy.world
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    20 hours ago

    The petro-states most impacted by the blockade are all monarchies. The idea that the problem is that this blockade wasn’t planned for by short sighted CEOs is fucking stupid.

    The impact on most of the world is slightly increased oil prices. A sudden decrease in oil supply is exactly the sort of problem that markets are good at solving - the main result is that companies will search for cheaper ways to get their products to market and will shunt resources to less oil-dependent products, while individuals drive personal motor vehicles less and switch to walking, cycling, transit, carpooling, or staying close to home. Ie, we already have a backup plan in place. Every somewhat-competently-run nation will simply tighten its belt a little, maybe increase investment in renewables, and soldier on like they have through every other economic downturn. There will, of course, be impacts on people - but the country will not collapse, governments will not be overthrown, food and water and shelter will still be widely available and easily accessible to almost everyone.

    Of course, in response to this you may say that the impacts will be severe, especially on working people in places like the United States where greedy corporate interests tore up the street car lines, forced everyone into auto-dependent suburbs, and lobbied the government for pro-oil-dependency legislation - which is all true. But which is also a project that took decades. Which is a weird thing if your thesis is that corporations only make actions with the next quarter’s profits in mind. I’m not saying corporations aren’t evil - I’m just saying, if they spent all that time and money influencing elections and building coalitions and passing laws, then they are clearly capable of long term planning - like telling the politicians they have in their pockets to ensure political stability in the Straight of Hormuz region.

    Meanwhile, the blockade is having a direct, immediate impact on petro-state monarchs, who are not going to ditch their companies with a golden parachute the moment things get hard. If anyone would have an interest in looking ahead and planning for contingencies if the Straight would be blockaded, it would be these people - fabulously wealthy and powerful, with the export of oil directly flowing to them and their families. If the problem you have with capitalism is that it doesn’t look ahead enough, then monarchs who pass laws and whose genetic lineages directly benefit from those laws should be your prime example of governments that take the long view. And yet, they don’t seem to have a great plan either, other than “pay the toll and hope Israel genocides the Iranians next.”

    So is this because the evil capitalists don’t think far enough ahead? No! Not everything is because capitalism is evil. Sometimes stupid bullshit just happens, because that’s life.

    • originalucifer@moist.catsweat.com
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      20 hours ago

      pulease. long term plannig my asshole.

      the modern world is littered with the failures to ‘long term plan’. i remeber thinking the world would be run by sears, ibm and xerox

      the world has shifted to ‘just in time’ supply chains… warehousing is considered liability. the wealthy people youre referring to have globally diversified… it would take actual catastrophe to affect them because when youre that rich even a recession is opportunity.

      • blarghly@lemmy.world
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        12 hours ago

        the modern world is littered with the failures to ‘long term plan’.

        SO IS THE ANCIENT WORLD. That’s my point. People, in general, are bad at long term planning, and we should not have so much hubris as to believe we have improved on this state of affairs. The old yiddish proverb “Man plans, god laughs” is as poignant today as it was in the past.

        The null hypothesis here should be “this happened because people are dumb and the world is chaotic”. The world today is significantly less dumb and chaotic than it was in the past, and that’s great! But it is rather entitled to think that we should expect the world to be orderly and prosperous as a rule. Shit happens. Assholes gain power and start wars. Sometimes things that were abundant become scarcer. This isn’t a capitalism thing - this shit has been going on since the dawn of civilization.

        • derAbsender@piefed.social
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          2 hours ago

          The Thing is that a very big Part of the damage could have been at least weakened if the renewables wouldve been expanded upon at the time people sounded the Alarm.

          But for some mysterious and definitely not evil, meaning short sighted, profit driven reason renewables werent build in a capacity that was necessary.

          The knowledge that oil could become a liability is, depending who you ask,already about 50 years old.

          What could that be called If there is Problem in the Future that is definitely coming but acting would cost Money that is not immediatly coming in again…?

          Short something… Maybe Profit something…

          Ah! Betting the foundation of human civilization that some magical technology will surely be developed in time and If we dont get it in time we deserve the apocalypse as species, since we dissapointed the invisible Hand of the Market.