What bothers me is that the Iranians seem to take this bait literally without being too critical. They’re basically saying that they’re ready to open the strait right away for negotiations to happen, even when Trump bombed their country during the previous ones. I think they will come to regret this.
What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly. It’s tit for tat. That’s been their strategy this whole time. I don’t think they expect the US to take negotiations seriously at all.
I do however think Iran wants to appear reasonable to the rest of the world. Under the ceasefire, they still expect other countries to coordinate with them to get ships through. That was already happening prior to the ceasefire but now it’s clear that’s what they expect from everyone. They’re forcing the world to acknowledge Iranian sovereignty over the strait which is a pretty serious win if they can keep it.
What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly.
What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.
A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.
Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.
They will. All it will take is a few drones from Iran atracking Israel after the cease fire and then the narrative will be “Iran violated the ceasefire, bombing will continue and now Europe has to help keep the strait open”.
What bothers me is that the Iranians seem to take this bait literally without being too critical. They’re basically saying that they’re ready to open the strait right away for negotiations to happen, even when Trump bombed their country during the previous ones. I think they will come to regret this.
What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly. It’s tit for tat. That’s been their strategy this whole time. I don’t think they expect the US to take negotiations seriously at all.
I do however think Iran wants to appear reasonable to the rest of the world. Under the ceasefire, they still expect other countries to coordinate with them to get ships through. That was already happening prior to the ceasefire but now it’s clear that’s what they expect from everyone. They’re forcing the world to acknowledge Iranian sovereignty over the strait which is a pretty serious win if they can keep it.
What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.
A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.
Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.
Yes someone needs to warn the Iranians that this administration doesn’t always negotiate in good faith, they’re clearly not aware of that possibility.
Take the bait? Look, playing chess with a pigeon is difficult. Given the terms listed out, someone took bait, but I don’t think it was Iran.
Trump wanted an off ramp, but ultimately, it was Iran that handed it to him. Probably won’t do much else in the end but buying time.
Maybe Iran will commit to the ceasefire in the same way Israel committed to the Gaza ceasefire?
Other way around. Israel will commit to this ceasefire like they committed to the Gaza ceasefire.
Edit: yeah https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-continuing-to-strike-in-iran-despite-ceasefire-announcement-security-official-tells-toi/
They will. All it will take is a few drones from Iran atracking Israel after the cease fire and then the narrative will be “Iran violated the ceasefire, bombing will continue and now Europe has to help keep the strait open”.