Hungary is a fully captured state. It is the poster child for illiberal democracy; it’s actually no longer possible for anyone but Orban and his allies to win at scale.
There will be elections next weekend. After 16 years, this is the first time there is an actual chance to remove Orbán from his seat. While the opposition party leader isn’t a cup of marshmallows, either, it might still be possible to stop Putin’s butt plug very soon.
Except the polls are showing a much more and consistent opposition lead, and discontent is much higher now due to many factors (but in my opinion it’s mostly the economy, highly affected by global economy).
I’ve been thinking of similarities as well: his daughter & family suddenly moved abroad back then, as well, and some institutes were getting ready for a regime change, similarly to this year. However, this time it can be seen in more places, and there has been a scandal about every other day in the past two weeks.
I’m aware of the hopium effect, and they might as well keep their position (although more likely not with 2/3 majority anymore), but as things are at the moment, if they still get some serious majority then it can only be because of their shady business around the elections: bribes, blackmail and assistance from Russian political actors who have had influenced other elections before.
Hungary is a fully captured state. It is the poster child for illiberal democracy; it’s actually no longer possible for anyone but Orban and his allies to win at scale.
There will be elections next weekend. After 16 years, this is the first time there is an actual chance to remove Orbán from his seat. While the opposition party leader isn’t a cup of marshmallows, either, it might still be possible to stop Putin’s butt plug very soon.
We heard the exact same thing in ‘22.
Except the polls are showing a much more and consistent opposition lead, and discontent is much higher now due to many factors (but in my opinion it’s mostly the economy, highly affected by global economy).
I’ve been thinking of similarities as well: his daughter & family suddenly moved abroad back then, as well, and some institutes were getting ready for a regime change, similarly to this year. However, this time it can be seen in more places, and there has been a scandal about every other day in the past two weeks.
I’m aware of the hopium effect, and they might as well keep their position (although more likely not with 2/3 majority anymore), but as things are at the moment, if they still get some serious majority then it can only be because of their shady business around the elections: bribes, blackmail and assistance from Russian political actors who have had influenced other elections before.
I don’t buy that. I guess we’ll find out who is right later this month
Fingers crossed I’m wrong, for sure.