Whether or not you believe Russia’s economy was “just about to collapse” from sanctions, that is all up in smoke now
The Western armories were already running bare. Now, Ukraine will probably never receive another air defense interceptor. There won’t be any tomahawks to give even if they got some working ground launchers.
Ukraine’s European backers were already under tremendous economic strain from having the highest energy prices in the world. They are EXTREMELY exposed to this current energy shock.
The combined forces of the West were already losing before suffering this massive economic shock and gigantic military expenditure
Those three are all real factors, but I think you are exaggerating their size and importance.
The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.
Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity. I imagine you’re right that it’s worse for Ukraine to lose access to American air defense systems than it is for Russia to lose access to Iranian Shaheds.
The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.
The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed. The Russians believe that if they just keep going, the Europeans will get bored and give up, while Ukrainians believe that they can keep going longer than the Russians because they are supported by a European economy that is not in an unsustainable “war mode”.
Who is right is up to us, and given that every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law, it is in the interest of future European peace to ensure that the Ukrainians are right - and to make that as obvious as possible to the Russians so that peace negotiations become possible.
3 factors:
The combined forces of the West were already losing before suffering this massive economic shock and gigantic military expenditure
Those three are all real factors, but I think you are exaggerating their size and importance.
The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.
Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity. I imagine you’re right that it’s worse for Ukraine to lose access to American air defense systems than it is for Russia to lose access to Iranian Shaheds.
The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.
The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed. The Russians believe that if they just keep going, the Europeans will get bored and give up, while Ukrainians believe that they can keep going longer than the Russians because they are supported by a European economy that is not in an unsustainable “war mode”.
Who is right is up to us, and given that every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law, it is in the interest of future European peace to ensure that the Ukrainians are right - and to make that as obvious as possible to the Russians so that peace negotiations become possible.